Projection 4.5
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (4.5)
Teal bars cleared 4.5 — 8 of 10 (80%).
DeMar DeRozan Rebounds Assists 4.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 55.9% against 58.7% (an edge of -2.8 points) and is now 51.7% against 55.0% (-3.3 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 4:50 AM | 55.9% | 58.7% | -2.8 |
| Oct 22, 5:10 AM | 56.1% | 59.0% | -2.9 |
| Oct 22, 5:20 AM | 55.5% | 58.7% | -3.2 |
| Oct 22, 5:40 AM | 52.7% | 56.9% | -4.2 |
| Oct 22, 5:50 AM | 51.8% | 56.5% | -4.7 |
| Oct 22, 6:00 AM | 52.4% | 56.9% | -4.5 |
| Oct 22, 6:10 AM | 49.2% | 55.0% | -5.8 |
| Oct 22, 2:21 AM | 51.7% | 55.0% | -3.3 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | DraftKings last repriced this 6m ago | ||
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4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 20m ago | ||
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4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 2m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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