How this price has moved at 0.5
Caleb Wilson Blocks 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 53.8% against 59.0% (an edge of -5.2 points) and is now 53.8% against 57.4% (-3.6 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 3:00 AM | 53.8% | 59.0% | -5.2 |
| Oct 21, 5:50 AM | 53.2% | 57.1% | -3.9 |
| Oct 21, 3:36 AM | 53.8% | 57.4% | -3.6 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | 0.5 | Courtside does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 6h ago | |
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0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 1h ago | ||
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0.5 | Hard Rock Bet does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 7h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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