Darius Acuff — Threes
Projection 2.2
+0.67pp vs fair:
Kalshi
prices the over at
+11346.9%47¢
against
Bovada's
+10548.8%49¢
.
Last 5 games vs the upcoming matchup line (2.5)
Teal bars cleared 2.5 — 2 of 5 (40%).
Darius Acuff Threes 2.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 43.7% against 46.9% (an edge of -3.2 points) and is now 47.6% against 48.5% (-0.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:10 AM | 43.7% | 46.9% | -3.2 |
| Oct 31, 6:20 AM | 44.3% | 46.9% | -2.6 |
| Oct 31, 7:30 AM | 43.7% | 48.5% | -4.8 |
| Oct 31, 7:40 AM | 44.6% | 50.9% | -6.3 |
| Oct 31, 9:00 AM | 45.1% | 46.9% | -1.8 |
| Oct 31, 9:10 AM | 44.6% | 48.0% | -3.4 |
| Oct 31, 9:40 AM | 45.9% | 47.6% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 11:00 AM | 44.1% | 49.8% | -5.7 |
| Oct 31, 11:20 AM | 43.7% | 49.0% | -5.3 |
| Oct 31, 11:30 AM | 44.9% | 48.3% | -3.4 |
| Oct 31, 12:10 PM | 46.9% | 46.9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:40 PM | 47.3% | 49.5% | -2.2 |
| Oct 31, 12:50 PM | 47.2% | 49.0% | -1.8 |
| Oct 31, 1:00 PM | 46.4% | 48.5% | -2.1 |
| Oct 31, 1:10 PM | 46.8% | 50.0% | -3.2 |
| Oct 31, 1:20 PM | 46.4% | 48.1% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 1:30 PM | 47.8% | 50.0% | -2.2 |
| Oct 31, 2:20 PM | 48.6% | 50.0% | -1.4 |
| Oct 31, 2:40 PM | 45.5% | 47.4% | -1.9 |
| Oct 31, 2:50 PM | 47.2% | 48.2% | -1 |
| Oct 31, 3:40 PM | 46.9% | 51.9% | -5 |
| Oct 31, 3:50 PM | 47.0% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Oct 31, 4:20 PM | 47.5% | 51.9% | -4.4 |
| Oct 31, 4:50 PM | 48.4% | 49.0% | -0.6 |
| Oct 31, 7:00 PM | 48.6% | 48.5% | 0.1 |
| Oct 31, 4:03 PM | 47.6% | 48.5% | -0.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing darius acuff threes are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 5h ago | ||
 BetRivers
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 1h ago | ||
 ProphetX
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | ProphetX last repriced this 28m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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