Projection 9.6
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (9.5)
Teal bars cleared 9.5 — 8 of 10 (80%).
Marcus Smart Points Assists 9.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 49.1% against 53.7% (an edge of -4.6 points) and is now 48.5% against 53.5% (-5 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 3:50 AM | 49.1% | 53.7% | -4.6 |
| Oct 21, 5:00 AM | 49.0% | 53.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 21, 3:00 AM | 48.5% | 53.5% | -5 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | 9.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 1h ago | ||
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9.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | DraftKings last repriced this 1h ago | ||
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9.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 3h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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