Projection 3.8
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (3.5)
Teal bars cleared 3.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).
De'Anthony Melton Rebounds 3.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 45.8% against 51.0% (an edge of -5.2 points) and is now 49.7% against 50.0% (-0.3 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 1:10 AM | 45.8% | 51.0% | -5.2 |
| Oct 21, 1:50 AM | 51.4% | 51.0% | 0.4 |
| Oct 21, 3:30 AM | 45.4% | 49.9% | -4.5 |
| Oct 21, 4:40 AM | 49.7% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Oct 21, 4:50 AM | 44.9% | 49.5% | -4.6 |
| Oct 21, 5:00 AM | 49.7% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Oct 21, 3:44 AM | 49.7% | 50.0% | -0.3 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | 3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 2h ago | ||
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3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | DraftKings last repriced this 3h ago | ||
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3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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