Peyton Watson — Threes
Projection 1.5
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Peyton Watson Threes 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 39.3% against 41.0% (an edge of -1.7 points) and is now 43.5% against 43.5% (0 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 10:00 AM | 39.3% | 41.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 21, 10:50 AM | 39.2% | 41.8% | -2.6 |
| Oct 21, 7:50 PM | 38.6% | 41.0% | -2.4 |
| Oct 21, 9:00 PM | 38.8% | 41.0% | -2.2 |
| Oct 21, 9:10 PM | 39.9% | 41.0% | -1.1 |
| Oct 21, 9:20 PM | 38.6% | 41.0% | -2.4 |
| Oct 21, 10:10 PM | 39.1% | 41.5% | -2.4 |
| Oct 21, 10:20 PM | 39.8% | 41.8% | -2 |
| Oct 21, 10:30 PM | 39.2% | 41.5% | -2.3 |
| Oct 21, 10:40 PM | 38.6% | 41.0% | -2.4 |
| Oct 21, 10:50 PM | 39.9% | 41.5% | -1.6 |
| Oct 22, 3:00 AM | 41.1% | 43.5% | -2.4 |
| Oct 22, 5:10 AM | 44.5% | 43.5% | 1 |
| Oct 22, 6:00 AM | 44.6% | 42.6% | 2 |
| Oct 22, 6:10 AM | 44.6% | 43.5% | 1.1 |
| Oct 22, 6:50 AM | 43.3% | 44.1% | -0.8 |
| Oct 22, 7:00 AM | 44.1% | 42.3% | 1.8 |
| Oct 22, 7:30 AM | 45.2% | 42.0% | 3.2 |
| Oct 22, 7:40 AM | 43.7% | 44.1% | -0.4 |
| Oct 22, 4:51 AM | 43.5% | 43.5% | 0 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BetRivers
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 1h ago | ||
| Courtside | 1.5 | Courtside does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 5h ago | |
 DraftKings
|
1.5 | DraftKings does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | DraftKings last repriced this 5h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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