Sam Merrill — Threes
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (2.5)
Teal bars cleared 2.5 — 2 of 10 (20%).
Sam Merrill Threes 2.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 39.1% against 48.1% (an edge of -9 points) and is now 38.9% against 41.0% (-2.1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 12:00 AM | 39.1% | 48.1% | -9 |
| Oct 21, 8:36 PM | 38.9% | 41.0% | -2.1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FanDuel
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 47m ago | ||
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 6m ago | ||
 Novig
|
2.5 | Novig does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Novig last repriced this 1h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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