Walbert Urena — Pitcher Outs
Projection 16.6
+0.58pp vs fair:
Kalshi
prices the over at
+11746.1%46¢
against
DraftKings's
-10451%51¢
.
How this price has moved at 17.5
Walbert Urena Pitcher Outs 17.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 52.7% against 60.0% (an edge of -7.3 points) and is now 49.1% against 48.1% (1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 1:40 AM | 52.7% | 60.0% | -7.3 |
| Sep 18, 1:50 AM | 53.6% | 49.0% | 4.6 |
| Sep 18, 2:00 AM | 62.9% | 72.0% | -9.1 |
| Sep 18, 2:10 AM | 62.1% | 88.0% | -25.9 |
| Sep 18, 2:20 AM | 62.9% | 90.0% | -27.1 |
| Sep 18, 3:10 AM | 47.1% | 45.7% | 1.4 |
| Sep 23, 9:00 AM | 50.9% | 55.0% | -4.1 |
| Sep 23, 9:20 AM | 51.1% | 54.9% | -3.8 |
| Sep 23, 9:30 AM | 50.8% | 53.9% | -3.1 |
| Sep 23, 9:50 AM | 50.9% | 53.9% | -3 |
| Sep 23, 10:30 AM | 50.9% | 53.9% | -3 |
| Sep 23, 11:30 AM | 50.7% | 53.1% | -2.4 |
| Sep 23, 11:50 AM | 50.1% | 54.3% | -4.2 |
| Sep 23, 12:20 PM | 50.0% | 54.6% | -4.6 |
| Sep 23, 12:50 PM | 50.9% | 53.1% | -2.2 |
| Sep 23, 1:20 PM | 50.8% | 53.1% | -2.3 |
| Sep 23, 4:30 PM | 46.8% | 50.0% | -3.2 |
| Sep 23, 4:40 PM | 46.2% | 50.0% | -3.8 |
| Sep 23, 4:50 PM | 49.8% | 51.0% | -1.2 |
| Sep 23, 6:30 PM | 47.8% | 50.0% | -2.2 |
| Sep 23, 7:40 PM | 50.1% | 50.0% | 0.1 |
| Sep 23, 10:00 PM | 48.1% | 48.1% | 0 |
| Sep 23, 10:40 PM | 49.1% | 48.1% | 1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
15.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 2h ago | |
 BetMGM
|
16.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 2h ago | ||
 Fanatics Sportsbook
|
16.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fanatics Sportsbook last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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