Projection 0.8
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)
Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 3 of 10 (30%).
Deyvison De Los Santos Hits 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 50.9% against 58.1% (an edge of -7.2 points) and is now 44.6% against 46.5% (-1.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 8:10 PM | 50.9% | 58.1% | -7.2 |
| Sep 20, 8:20 PM | 48.1% | 55.0% | -6.9 |
| Sep 20, 8:30 PM | 45.4% | 51.9% | -6.5 |
| Sep 20, 8:40 PM | 33.6% | 69.3% | -35.7 |
| Sep 20, 9:00 PM | 30.8% | 37.0% | -6.2 |
| Sep 20, 9:10 PM | 32.5% | 57.8% | -25.3 |
| Sep 20, 9:20 PM | 38.5% | 40.0% | -1.5 |
| Sep 20, 9:30 PM | 39.2% | 32.6% | 6.6 |
| Sep 22, 9:20 PM | 46.2% | 48.1% | -1.9 |
| Sep 22, 9:30 PM | 44.8% | 49.6% | -4.8 |
| Sep 22, 10:00 PM | 45.5% | 46.5% | -1 |
| Sep 22, 10:20 PM | 44.6% | 47.2% | -2.6 |
| Sep 22, 10:30 PM | 44.6% | 46.5% | -1.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fanatics Sportsbook last repriced this 41m ago | ||
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0.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 1h ago | |
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0.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 31m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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