Yoshinobu Yamamoto — Pitcher Outs
Projection 19.3
How this price has moved at 18.5
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Pitcher Outs 18.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 41.6% against 47.2% (an edge of -5.6 points) and is now 39.9% against 35.0% (4.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 5:50 AM | 41.6% | 47.2% | -5.6 |
| Sep 23, 6:10 AM | 40.9% | 47.2% | -6.3 |
| Sep 23, 7:00 AM | 41.6% | 47.2% | -5.6 |
| Sep 23, 8:00 AM | 42.4% | 45.0% | -2.6 |
| Sep 23, 8:10 AM | 43.3% | 46.1% | -2.8 |
| Sep 23, 8:30 AM | 42.8% | 45.0% | -2.2 |
| Sep 23, 8:40 AM | 43.1% | 45.6% | -2.5 |
| Sep 23, 9:00 AM | 42.4% | 45.0% | -2.6 |
| Sep 23, 9:20 AM | 42.7% | 46.1% | -3.4 |
| Sep 23, 10:50 AM | 42.8% | 45.0% | -2.2 |
| Sep 23, 12:00 PM | 42.5% | 60.7% | -18.2 |
| Sep 23, 12:50 PM | 42.5% | 51.9% | -9.4 |
| Sep 23, 6:50 PM | 44.1% | 44.1% | 0 |
| Sep 23, 7:30 PM | 42.5% | 45.0% | -2.5 |
| Sep 23, 8:40 PM | 44.1% | 46.1% | -2 |
| Sep 23, 9:10 PM | 42.5% | 46.0% | -3.5 |
| Sep 23, 9:20 PM | 43.3% | 42.9% | 0.4 |
| Sep 23, 9:30 PM | 41.8% | 47.2% | -5.4 |
| Sep 23, 9:50 PM | 43.5% | 42.9% | 0.6 |
| Sep 23, 11:10 PM | 39.9% | 35.0% | 4.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
16.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 3h ago | |
|
Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
17.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 3h ago | |
 BetMGM
|
18.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 1h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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