Dominic Smith — Total Bases
Projection 1.3
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 1 of 10 (10%).
Dominic Smith Total Bases 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 31.1% against 36.6% (an edge of -5.5 points) and is now 25.0% against 28.0% (-3 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 8:10 PM | 31.1% | 36.6% | -5.5 |
| Sep 26, 8:20 PM | 32.0% | 32.1% | -0.1 |
| Oct 1, 8:40 PM | 25.0% | 28.0% | -3 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
1.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 9m ago | |
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
1.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 45m ago | |
 Fanatics Sportsbook
|
0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fanatics Sportsbook last repriced this just now |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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