How this price has moved at 0.5
Dominic Smith Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 62.2% against 69.0% (an edge of -6.8 points) and is now 53.1% against 64.8% (-11.7 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 8:20 PM | 62.2% | 69.0% | -6.8 |
| Oct 1, 8:30 PM | 51.9% | 57.1% | -5.2 |
| Oct 1, 8:40 PM | 51.8% | 57.1% | -5.3 |
| Oct 1, 8:50 PM | 52.1% | 55.0% | -2.9 |
| Oct 1, 9:00 PM | 52.9% | 56.5% | -3.6 |
| Oct 1, 10:00 PM | 53.1% | 64.8% | -11.7 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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0.5 | BetMGM does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 30m ago | |
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0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this just now | ||
| Courtside | 0.5 | Courtside does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 2m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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