Dominic Smith — Hits
Projection 0.7
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)
Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 1 of 10 (10%).
Dominic Smith Hits 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 59.1% against 61.0% (an edge of -1.9 points) and is now 48.1% against 51.5% (-3.4 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 8:10 PM | 59.1% | 61.0% | -1.9 |
| Sep 26, 8:20 PM | 58.9% | 59.0% | -0.1 |
| Sep 26, 8:30 PM | 58.1% | 99.0% | -40.9 |
| Oct 1, 8:20 PM | 46.6% | 77.0% | -30.4 |
| Oct 1, 8:30 PM | 47.8% | 58.1% | -10.3 |
| Oct 1, 8:40 PM | 48.9% | 53.3% | -4.4 |
| Oct 1, 8:50 PM | 48.3% | 54.5% | -6.2 |
| Oct 1, 9:00 PM | 48.9% | 51.9% | -3 |
| Oct 1, 9:40 PM | 49.0% | 49.8% | -0.8 |
| Oct 1, 9:50 PM | 48.1% | 51.3% | -3.2 |
| Oct 1, 10:00 PM | 48.1% | 51.5% | -3.4 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DraftKings
|
0.5 | DraftKings does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | DraftKings last repriced this 7m ago | |
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
0.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 7m ago | |
 Novig
|
0.5 | Novig does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Novig last repriced this 1m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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