Nathaniel Lowe — Total Bases
Projection 1.7
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 2 of 10 (20%).
Nathaniel Lowe Total Bases 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 39.8% against 38.8% (an edge of 1 points) and is now 31.1% against 23.0% (8.1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 8:00 PM | 39.8% | 38.8% | 1 |
| Sep 26, 10:20 PM | 35.9% | 38.5% | -2.6 |
| Sep 26, 10:50 PM | 38.4% | 39.4% | -1 |
| Sep 26, 11:10 PM | 37.6% | 39.0% | -1.4 |
| Sep 26, 11:20 PM | 36.8% | 40.0% | -3.2 |
| Sep 26, 11:30 PM | 29.1% | 55.9% | -26.8 |
| Sep 27, 12:00 AM | 21.6% | 25.5% | -3.9 |
| Sep 27, 12:10 AM | 21.5% | 23.0% | -1.5 |
| Sep 27, 12:20 AM | 19.4% | 21.0% | -1.6 |
| Sep 27, 12:40 AM | 9.9% | 10.0% | -0.1 |
| Oct 5, 5:40 PM | 27.6% | 31.0% | -3.4 |
| Oct 5, 9:20 PM | 23.2% | 27.0% | -3.8 |
| Oct 5, 9:30 PM | 23.6% | 27.0% | -3.4 |
| Oct 5, 9:40 PM | 23.1% | 26.0% | -2.9 |
| Oct 5, 9:50 PM | 22.9% | 26.0% | -3.1 |
| Oct 5, 10:00 PM | 16.8% | 21.0% | -4.2 |
| Oct 5, 10:20 PM | 16.8% | 17.0% | -0.2 |
| Oct 5, 10:30 PM | 17.6% | 17.0% | 0.6 |
| Oct 5, 10:50 PM | 16.1% | 14.0% | 2.1 |
| Oct 5, 11:00 PM | 16.1% | 17.0% | -0.9 |
| Oct 5, 11:10 PM | 16.8% | 28.0% | -11.2 |
| Oct 5, 11:50 PM | 8.5% | 22.0% | -13.5 |
| Oct 6, 12:00 AM | 7.4% | 11.0% | -3.6 |
| Oct 7, 8:00 PM | 35.3% | 34.0% | 1.3 |
| Oct 7, 8:20 PM | 31.3% | 29.0% | 2.3 |
| Oct 7, 8:40 PM | 23.1% | 22.5% | 0.6 |
| Oct 7, 8:50 PM | 21.9% | 59.5% | -37.6 |
| Oct 7, 9:00 PM | 17.9% | 18.5% | -0.6 |
| Oct 7, 9:10 PM | 18.5% | 18.5% | 0 |
| Oct 7, 9:20 PM | 18.5% | 18.0% | 0.5 |
| Oct 7, 9:30 PM | 17.9% | 15.0% | 2.9 |
| Oct 7, 9:40 PM | 19.4% | 92.0% | -72.6 |
| Oct 7, 9:50 PM | 13.8% | 13.0% | 0.8 |
| Oct 7, 10:10 PM | 12.4% | 11.0% | 1.4 |
| Oct 7, 10:20 PM | 14.9% | 10.5% | 4.4 |
| Oct 7, 10:30 PM | 14.3% | 15.0% | -0.7 |
| Oct 7, 10:50 PM | 9.4% | 13.5% | -4.1 |
| Oct 7, 11:00 PM | 9.4% | 10.5% | -1.1 |
| Oct 9, 12:10 AM | 33.9% | 34.6% | -0.7 |
| Oct 9, 12:20 AM | 28.7% | 31.0% | -2.3 |
| Oct 9, 12:40 AM | 29.7% | 24.0% | 5.7 |
| Oct 9, 1:00 AM | 27.1% | 24.0% | 3.1 |
| Oct 9, 1:10 AM | 27.1% | 27.0% | 0.1 |
| Oct 9, 1:20 AM | 36.7% | 32.1% | 4.6 |
| Oct 9, 1:30 AM | 36.7% | 34.0% | 2.7 |
| Oct 9, 1:40 AM | 37.5% | 39.1% | -1.6 |
| Oct 9, 1:50 AM | 37.2% | 35.1% | 2.1 |
| Oct 9, 2:00 AM | 36.2% | 34.0% | 2.2 |
| Oct 9, 2:10 AM | 33.5% | 26.0% | 7.5 |
| Oct 9, 2:20 AM | 32.8% | 36.0% | -3.2 |
| Oct 9, 2:30 AM | 25.7% | 21.5% | 4.2 |
| Oct 9, 2:40 AM | 20.5% | 20.0% | 0.5 |
| Oct 9, 3:10 AM | 21.6% | 18.0% | 3.6 |
| Oct 9, 3:20 AM | 21.6% | 99.0% | -77.4 |
| Oct 10, 6:10 PM | 31.1% | 23.0% | 8.1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hard Rock Bet
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 54m ago | ||
 1xBet
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | 1xBet last repriced this 48m ago | ||
| Thescorebet | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Thescorebet last repriced this 1h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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