Daniel Lynch IV — Pitcher Outs
Projection 16.4
How this price has moved at 14.5
Daniel Lynch IV Pitcher Outs 14.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 57.5% against 60.9% (an edge of -3.4 points) and is now 56.1% against 60.0% (-3.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 4:20 AM | 57.5% | 60.9% | -3.4 |
| Sep 22, 4:30 AM | 56.1% | 60.0% | -3.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
14.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 2h ago | ||
 Smarkets
|
14.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Smarkets last repriced this 45m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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