How this price has moved at 4.5
Anthony Kay Hits Allowed 4.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 42.8% against 48.1% (an edge of -5.3 points) and is now 42.8% against 48.1% (-5.3 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 6:40 AM | 42.8% | 48.1% | -5.3 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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3.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 3m ago | |
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4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fanatics Sportsbook last repriced this 10m ago | ||
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4.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 1h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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