George Kirby — Earned Runs
How this price has moved at 1.5
George Kirby Earned Runs 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 59.0% against 62.5% (an edge of -3.5 points) and is now 58.3% against 62.2% (-3.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 12:10 PM | 59.0% | 62.5% | -3.5 |
| Sep 23, 12:20 PM | 57.9% | 63.0% | -5.1 |
| Sep 23, 12:40 PM | 58.8% | 63.2% | -4.4 |
| Sep 23, 2:30 PM | 59.4% | 63.5% | -4.1 |
| Sep 23, 3:10 PM | 56.9% | 62.7% | -5.8 |
| Sep 23, 5:00 PM | 56.6% | 63.0% | -6.4 |
| Sep 23, 8:40 PM | 59.8% | 63.0% | -3.2 |
| Sep 23, 10:20 PM | 58.3% | 62.2% | -3.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
0.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 3h ago | |
 BetMGM
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 2h ago | ||
 DraftKings
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | DraftKings last repriced this 4h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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