Aaron Nola — Earned Runs
+0.14pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
-10751.7%52¢
against
Pinnacle's
-11954.3%54¢
.
How this price has moved at 1.5
Aaron Nola Earned Runs 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 59.4% against 59.0% (an edge of 0.4 points) and is now 51.2% against 51.7% (-0.5 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2:40 PM | 59.4% | 59.0% | 0.4 |
| Oct 1, 2:40 PM | 52.4% | 58.0% | -5.6 |
| Oct 1, 2:50 PM | 51.4% | 56.0% | -4.6 |
| Oct 1, 3:00 PM | 47.5% | 54.1% | -6.6 |
| Oct 1, 3:10 PM | 49.4% | 55.0% | -5.6 |
| Oct 1, 3:30 PM | 53.8% | 53.9% | -0.1 |
| Oct 1, 3:40 PM | 49.0% | 54.8% | -5.8 |
| Oct 1, 3:50 PM | 50.4% | 55.0% | -4.6 |
| Oct 1, 4:00 PM | 47.9% | 53.1% | -5.2 |
| Oct 1, 4:10 PM | 47.4% | 53.6% | -6.2 |
| Oct 1, 4:30 PM | 49.8% | 51.5% | -1.7 |
| Oct 1, 4:40 PM | 49.8% | 51.9% | -2.1 |
| Oct 1, 5:00 PM | 52.5% | 52.6% | -0.1 |
| Oct 1, 5:10 PM | 52.9% | 55.1% | -2.2 |
| Oct 1, 5:20 PM | 54.4% | 54.6% | -0.2 |
| Oct 1, 5:30 PM | 52.7% | 56.3% | -3.6 |
| Oct 1, 5:50 PM | 51.2% | 51.7% | -0.5 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BetMGM
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 31m ago | ||
| Courtside | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 5m ago | ||
 DraftKings
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | DraftKings last repriced this 50m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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