Jeffrey Springs — Strikeouts
Projection 5.0
+0.13pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
-10451%51¢
against
Fanatics Sportsbook's
-11052.4%52¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (4.5)
Teal bars cleared 4.5 — 2 of 10 (20%).
Jeffrey Springs Strikeouts 4.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 57.2% against 60.6% (an edge of -3.4 points) and is now 51.0% against 54.1% (-3.1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 7:50 AM | 57.2% | 60.6% | -3.4 |
| Sep 23, 8:30 AM | 56.8% | 60.0% | -3.2 |
| Sep 23, 9:50 AM | 55.1% | 60.0% | -4.9 |
| Sep 23, 10:10 AM | 57.2% | 60.3% | -3.1 |
| Sep 23, 11:50 AM | 56.5% | 59.0% | -2.5 |
| Sep 23, 12:10 PM | 54.5% | 58.0% | -3.5 |
| Sep 23, 12:20 PM | 54.3% | 56.9% | -2.6 |
| Sep 23, 12:40 PM | 56.3% | 57.1% | -0.8 |
| Sep 23, 3:00 PM | 56.1% | 56.9% | -0.8 |
| Sep 23, 6:40 PM | 53.3% | 55.9% | -2.6 |
| Sep 23, 6:50 PM | 54.1% | 55.7% | -1.6 |
| Sep 23, 7:00 PM | 54.8% | 53.9% | 0.9 |
| Sep 23, 9:20 PM | 53.1% | 53.9% | -0.8 |
| Sep 23, 9:50 PM | 52.4% | 53.1% | -0.7 |
| Sep 23, 10:00 PM | 51.8% | 53.0% | -1.2 |
| Sep 23, 10:10 PM | 51.0% | 54.1% | -3.1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hard Rock Bet
|
1.5 | Hard Rock Bet does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 2h ago | |
|
Hard Rock Bet
|
2.5 | Hard Rock Bet does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 2h ago | |
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
2.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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