Max Fried — Strikeouts
Projection 5.3
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (5.5)
Teal bars cleared 5.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Max Fried Strikeouts 5.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 39.8% against 89.0% (an edge of -49.2 points) and is now 39.8% against 89.0% (-49.2 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 6:10 AM | 39.8% | 89.0% | -49.2 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
3.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 35m ago | |
 Fanatics Sportsbook
|
4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fanatics Sportsbook last repriced this 35m ago | ||
|
Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
4.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 16m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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