Ethan Pecko — Pitcher Outs
Projection 14.2
How this price has moved at 14.5
Ethan Pecko Pitcher Outs 14.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 54.4% against 58.0% (an edge of -3.6 points) and is now 51.0% against 50.5% (0.5 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 8:00 AM | 54.4% | 58.0% | -3.6 |
| Sep 23, 8:40 AM | 52.8% | 59.0% | -6.2 |
| Sep 23, 9:50 AM | 54.5% | 59.0% | -4.5 |
| Sep 23, 10:50 AM | 53.6% | 58.0% | -4.4 |
| Sep 23, 11:00 AM | 53.6% | 57.1% | -3.5 |
| Sep 23, 12:20 PM | 53.0% | 59.0% | -6 |
| Sep 23, 12:40 PM | 53.5% | 57.1% | -3.6 |
| Sep 23, 1:20 PM | 51.0% | 60.0% | -9 |
| Sep 23, 2:30 PM | 53.3% | 57.1% | -3.8 |
| Sep 23, 4:20 PM | 51.4% | 59.0% | -7.6 |
| Sep 23, 4:50 PM | 53.7% | 60.9% | -7.2 |
| Sep 23, 5:00 PM | 53.7% | 59.0% | -5.3 |
| Sep 23, 8:40 PM | 51.0% | 57.1% | -6.1 |
| Sep 23, 10:20 PM | 52.3% | 55.0% | -2.7 |
| Sep 23, 11:00 PM | 51.0% | 50.5% | 0.5 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
12.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 52m ago | ||
 BetMGM
|
13.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 1h ago | ||
|
Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
13.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 52m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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