Ethan Pecko — Hits Allowed
How this price has moved at 4.5
Ethan Pecko Hits Allowed 4.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 40.4% against 44.1% (an edge of -3.7 points) and is now 40.9% against 48.1% (-7.2 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 10:40 AM | 40.4% | 44.1% | -3.7 |
| Sep 23, 12:10 PM | 42.8% | 46.1% | -3.3 |
| Sep 23, 12:20 PM | 41.6% | 47.5% | -5.9 |
| Sep 23, 12:30 PM | 41.6% | 46.9% | -5.3 |
| Sep 23, 12:40 PM | 43.3% | 48.1% | -4.8 |
| Sep 23, 12:50 PM | 43.2% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Sep 23, 1:20 PM | 41.7% | 47.4% | -5.7 |
| Sep 23, 1:30 PM | 42.4% | 44.3% | -1.9 |
| Sep 23, 1:50 PM | 42.9% | 44.2% | -1.3 |
| Sep 23, 2:00 PM | 42.9% | 44.8% | -1.9 |
| Sep 23, 2:10 PM | 42.5% | 44.8% | -2.3 |
| Sep 23, 3:10 PM | 41.7% | 46.7% | -5 |
| Sep 23, 3:20 PM | 41.5% | 44.8% | -3.3 |
| Sep 23, 11:00 PM | 40.9% | 48.1% | -7.2 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 8m ago | ||
 Bovada
|
3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 59m ago | ||
|
Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
3.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 1h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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