Ethan Pecko — Earned Runs
How this price has moved at 2.5
Ethan Pecko Earned Runs 2.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 42.9% against 46.1% (an edge of -3.2 points) and is now 43.9% against 47.2% (-3.3 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 12:10 PM | 42.9% | 46.1% | -3.2 |
| Sep 23, 12:20 PM | 41.1% | 45.9% | -4.8 |
| Sep 23, 12:40 PM | 43.1% | 45.9% | -2.8 |
| Sep 23, 2:30 PM | 61.3% | 46.5% | 14.8 |
| Sep 23, 9:40 PM | 52.2% | 46.9% | 5.3 |
| Sep 23, 10:20 PM | 43.9% | 47.2% | -3.3 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
0.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 1h ago | |
 1xBet
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | 1xBet last repriced this 22m ago | ||
|
Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 11m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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