Dylan Sampson — Receptions
Projection 2.3
+1.72pp vs fair:
Kalshi
prices the over at
+12245%45¢
against
Sportzino's
+13043.5%43¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (2.5)
Teal bars cleared 2.5 — 4 of 10 (40%).
Dylan Sampson Receptions 2.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 49.0% against 47.0% (an edge of 2 points) and is now 46.3% against 46.1% (0.2 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 9:30 PM | 49.0% | 47.0% | 2 |
| Oct 29, 11:40 PM | 48.8% | 49.8% | -1 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 47.2% | 46.9% | 0.3 |
| Oct 30, 5:50 AM | 48.8% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 AM | 39.8% | 47.2% | -7.4 |
| Oct 30, 11:10 AM | 45.5% | 53.5% | -8 |
| Oct 30, 12:00 PM | 47.3% | 47.7% | -0.4 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 45.5% | 46.1% | -0.6 |
| Oct 30, 2:10 PM | 44.2% | 48.0% | -3.8 |
| Oct 30, 2:20 PM | 38.9% | 46.1% | -7.2 |
| Oct 30, 2:50 PM | 46.5% | 47.2% | -0.7 |
| Oct 30, 3:00 PM | 45.5% | 47.8% | -2.3 |
| Oct 30, 4:10 PM | 46.5% | 47.8% | -1.3 |
| Oct 30, 4:30 PM | 45.8% | 47.6% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 4:40 PM | 45.3% | 49.3% | -4 |
| Oct 30, 4:50 PM | 46.8% | 47.6% | -0.8 |
| Oct 31, 12:00 AM | 46.7% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Oct 31, 4:40 PM | 42.0% | 47.3% | -5.3 |
| Oct 31, 4:50 PM | 46.5% | 47.3% | -0.8 |
| Oct 31, 5:20 PM | 46.5% | 46.0% | 0.5 |
| Oct 31, 10:00 PM | 46.6% | 46.1% | 0.5 |
| Oct 31, 6:06 PM | 46.3% | 46.1% | 0.2 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing dylan sampson receptions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 2.5 | Bet99 does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 5h ago | |
 BetMGM
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 1d ago | ||
|
Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
2.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 5h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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