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Cam Ward — Passing Touchdowns

Projection 1.1

Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)

Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).

Cam Ward Passing Touchdowns 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 65.1% against 72.0% (an edge of -6.9 points) and is now 63.6% against 65.8% (-2.2 points).

De-vigged book consensus against the prediction-market price, by time
Time Book consensus, de-vigged Prediction market Edge in percentage points
Oct 28, 4:00 AM 65.1% 72.0% -6.9
Oct 28, 10:00 AM 65.3% 70.4% -5.1
Oct 28, 4:00 PM 65.9% 69.0% -3.1
Oct 28, 4:10 PM 65.6% 69.4% -3.8
Oct 28, 4:20 PM 64.9% 68.9% -4
Oct 28, 4:50 PM 66.2% 68.9% -2.7
Oct 28, 5:00 PM 64.7% 70.1% -5.4
Oct 28, 5:30 PM 67.6% 69.7% -2.1
Oct 28, 5:50 PM 66.1% 69.7% -3.6
Oct 28, 6:30 PM 67.1% 70.1% -3
Oct 28, 7:00 PM 66.9% 70.6% -3.7
Oct 28, 7:40 PM 67.1% 69.7% -2.6
Oct 28, 8:10 PM 66.2% 70.1% -3.9
Oct 28, 8:50 PM 68.4% 69.7% -1.3
Oct 28, 11:20 PM 67.1% 70.1% -3
Oct 29, 12:30 AM 64.9% 69.7% -4.8
Oct 29, 2:00 AM 65.6% 68.1% -2.5
Oct 29, 3:00 AM 67.1% 70.6% -3.5
Oct 29, 4:00 AM 65.2% 69.4% -4.2
Oct 29, 4:10 AM 66.0% 70.6% -4.6
Oct 29, 5:50 AM 65.0% 69.7% -4.7
Oct 29, 6:00 AM 64.9% 70.1% -5.2
Oct 29, 7:00 AM 65.2% 69.0% -3.8
Oct 29, 8:30 AM 65.6% 70.1% -4.5
Oct 29, 10:00 AM 65.3% 70.1% -4.8
Oct 29, 1:20 PM 63.9% 69.7% -5.8
Oct 29, 1:40 PM 65.4% 69.0% -3.6
Oct 29, 1:50 PM 63.6% 70.6% -7
Oct 29, 2:20 PM 65.7% 69.0% -3.3
Oct 29, 2:30 PM 65.2% 69.0% -3.8
Oct 29, 2:40 PM 64.7% 68.1% -3.4
Oct 29, 3:00 PM 64.4% 69.0% -4.6
Oct 29, 3:30 PM 65.8% 68.7% -2.9
Oct 29, 4:20 PM 64.8% 68.8% -4
Oct 29, 5:50 PM 65.4% 68.6% -3.2
Oct 29, 6:00 PM 65.3% 69.0% -3.7
Oct 29, 7:20 PM 67.3% 69.2% -1.9
Oct 29, 7:30 PM 66.5% 68.8% -2.3
Oct 29, 8:10 PM 65.1% 69.2% -4.1
Oct 29, 8:40 PM 65.5% 68.8% -3.3
Oct 30, 3:00 AM 65.5% 68.2% -2.7
Oct 30, 4:00 AM 64.6% 68.6% -4
Oct 30, 4:30 AM 65.1% 68.8% -3.7
Oct 30, 7:00 AM 65.2% 69.6% -4.4
Oct 30, 8:50 AM 64.6% 69.2% -4.6
Oct 30, 11:10 AM 65.3% 68.7% -3.4
Oct 30, 11:20 AM 64.3% 68.9% -4.6
Oct 30, 11:40 AM 65.1% 69.0% -3.9
Oct 30, 11:50 AM 63.5% 68.1% -4.6
Oct 30, 1:00 PM 64.4% 68.8% -4.4
Oct 30, 1:10 PM 67.6% 68.8% -1.2
Oct 30, 1:20 PM 63.8% 67.7% -3.9
Oct 30, 1:40 PM 65.3% 68.0% -2.7
Oct 30, 2:30 PM 65.5% 67.2% -1.7
Oct 30, 2:50 PM 64.7% 68.1% -3.4
Oct 30, 3:00 PM 63.7% 68.1% -4.4
Oct 30, 3:10 PM 63.6% 68.1% -4.5
Oct 30, 3:50 PM 65.9% 67.1% -1.2
Oct 30, 4:00 PM 64.3% 69.0% -4.7
Oct 30, 8:30 PM 62.2% 69.0% -6.8
Oct 31, 12:00 AM 62.6% 67.0% -4.4
Oct 31, 1:50 AM 64.3% 66.5% -2.2
Oct 31, 6:00 AM 62.2% 65.0% -2.8
Oct 31, 12:20 PM 64.1% 65.8% -1.7
Oct 31, 3:30 PM 62.0% 65.9% -3.9
Oct 31, 4:50 PM 62.3% 66.4% -4.1
Oct 31, 5:50 PM 62.2% 66.0% -3.8
Oct 31, 6:10 PM 62.3% 65.8% -3.5
Oct 31, 2:58 PM 63.6% 65.8% -2.2

Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.

Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing cam ward passing touchdowns are still live.

Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.

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All Passing Touchdowns props Prop Edge Tool

Updated 1 minute ago.