+0.58pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
+11147.4%47¢
against
Stoiximan's
+10050%50¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (20.5)
Teal bars cleared 20.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Drake Maye Passing Completions 20.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 52.0% against 52.9% (an edge of -0.9 points) and is now 46.8% against 47.4% (-0.6 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 4:00 AM | 52.0% | 52.9% | -0.9 |
| Oct 28, 5:50 AM | 46.7% | 53.9% | -7.2 |
| Oct 28, 12:20 PM | 50.4% | 51.2% | -0.8 |
| Oct 28, 12:30 PM | 51.0% | 51.0% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 4:00 PM | 49.7% | 53.3% | -3.6 |
| Oct 28, 6:40 PM | 49.6% | 53.7% | -4.1 |
| Oct 28, 8:30 PM | 50.1% | 52.6% | -2.5 |
| Oct 28, 8:50 PM | 50.3% | 51.5% | -1.2 |
| Oct 28, 10:40 PM | 50.0% | 51.7% | -1.7 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM | 50.0% | 51.5% | -1.5 |
| Oct 28, 11:10 PM | 51.4% | 52.5% | -1.1 |
| Oct 28, 11:20 PM | 51.7% | 53.7% | -2 |
| Oct 28, 11:30 PM | 50.3% | 53.7% | -3.4 |
| Oct 29, 4:00 AM | 52.3% | 50.5% | 1.8 |
| Oct 29, 5:50 AM | 52.3% | 51.2% | 1.1 |
| Oct 29, 6:00 AM | 52.3% | 51.0% | 1.3 |
| Oct 29, 3:30 PM | 50.6% | 51.0% | -0.4 |
| Oct 29, 5:50 PM | 49.2% | 53.4% | -4.2 |
| Oct 29, 6:00 PM | 49.0% | 53.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 29, 7:00 PM | 48.4% | 53.5% | -5.1 |
| Oct 29, 7:10 PM | 48.6% | 53.5% | -4.9 |
| Oct 29, 7:50 PM | 49.1% | 54.1% | -5 |
| Oct 29, 8:10 PM | 47.5% | 53.9% | -6.4 |
| Oct 29, 9:30 PM | 49.0% | 53.9% | -4.9 |
| Oct 29, 11:20 PM | 49.0% | 53.9% | -4.9 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 48.6% | 53.7% | -5.1 |
| Oct 30, 5:30 AM | 50.0% | 53.9% | -3.9 |
| Oct 30, 5:50 AM | 47.7% | 53.5% | -5.8 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 AM | 47.4% | 53.5% | -6.1 |
| Oct 30, 7:10 AM | 48.5% | 53.5% | -5 |
| Oct 30, 9:50 AM | 49.0% | 53.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 AM | 49.0% | 53.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 30, 12:10 PM | 48.0% | 53.1% | -5.1 |
| Oct 30, 1:30 PM | 49.0% | 53.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 49.0% | 52.6% | -3.6 |
| Oct 30, 1:50 PM | 50.0% | 53.7% | -3.7 |
| Oct 31, 1:56 PM | 46.8% | 47.4% | -0.6 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing drake maye passing completions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 20.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 43m ago | ||
|
|
20.5 | BetRivers does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 10m ago | |
| Courtside | 20.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 41m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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