Brian Thomas — Receptions
Projection 1.1
+0.66pp vs fair:
Kalshi
prices the over at
+18635%35¢
against
Pinnacle's
+16837.3%37¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 7 of 10 (70%).
Brian Thomas Receptions 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 39.6% against 37.0% (an edge of 2.6 points) and is now 36.7% against 36.5% (0.2 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 6:20 PM | 39.6% | 37.0% | 2.6 |
| Oct 30, 8:20 PM | 30.8% | 46.1% | -15.3 |
| Oct 30, 8:40 PM | 49.7% | 51.6% | -1.9 |
| Oct 30, 9:00 PM | 53.7% | 51.9% | 1.8 |
| Oct 30, 10:00 PM | 49.0% | 56.2% | -7.2 |
| Oct 30, 10:10 PM | 50.4% | 60.0% | -9.6 |
| Oct 30, 10:20 PM | 43.8% | 58.3% | -14.5 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 47.8% | 57.4% | -9.6 |
| Oct 30, 10:40 PM | 47.7% | 55.9% | -8.2 |
| Oct 30, 10:50 PM | 52.9% | 55.5% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 PM | 52.9% | 57.5% | -4.6 |
| Oct 31, 12:00 AM | 54.0% | 53.2% | 0.8 |
| Oct 31, 12:40 AM | 51.9% | 53.1% | -1.2 |
| Oct 31, 12:50 AM | 51.0% | 52.6% | -1.6 |
| Oct 31, 1:00 AM | 50.8% | 52.6% | -1.8 |
| Oct 31, 7:00 AM | 51.4% | 51.0% | 0.4 |
| Oct 31, 11:00 AM | 49.4% | 50.5% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 2:10 PM | 50.2% | 51.0% | -0.8 |
| Oct 31, 2:30 PM | 50.8% | 50.5% | 0.3 |
| Oct 31, 2:40 PM | 50.4% | 50.5% | -0.1 |
| Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 50.9% | 50.4% | 0.5 |
| Oct 31, 4:00 PM | 50.8% | 49.0% | 1.8 |
| Oct 31, 4:30 PM | 51.0% | 51.7% | -0.7 |
| Oct 31, 4:50 PM | 51.4% | 50.3% | 1.1 |
| Oct 31, 5:00 PM | 51.7% | 50.0% | 1.7 |
| Oct 31, 5:20 PM | 51.8% | 49.5% | 2.3 |
| Oct 31, 5:40 PM | 51.5% | 51.7% | -0.2 |
| Oct 31, 6:20 PM | 51.2% | 49.8% | 1.4 |
| Oct 31, 10:00 PM | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2 |
| Nov 1, 2:30 AM | 52.9% | 49.0% | 3.9 |
| Nov 1, 3:30 AM | 53.1% | 50.7% | 2.4 |
| Nov 1, 8:40 AM | 50.0% | 51.0% | -1 |
| Nov 1, 10:40 AM | 51.7% | 50.1% | 1.6 |
| Nov 1, 12:10 PM | 48.8% | 36.1% | 12.7 |
| Nov 1, 12:20 PM | 35.2% | 36.0% | -0.8 |
| Nov 1, 12:30 PM | 38.1% | 36.8% | 1.3 |
| Nov 1, 12:40 PM | 37.4% | 36.9% | 0.5 |
| Nov 1, 12:50 PM | 36.8% | 36.0% | 0.8 |
| Nov 1, 1:20 PM | 36.6% | 37.3% | -0.7 |
| Nov 1, 1:50 PM | 36.0% | 36.0% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:20 PM | 38.6% | 36.5% | 2.1 |
| Nov 1, 3:50 PM | 38.9% | 37.0% | 1.9 |
| Nov 1, 4:30 PM | 38.1% | 37.0% | 1.1 |
| Nov 1, 12:57 PM | 36.7% | 36.5% | 0.2 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing brian thomas receptions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 2h ago | ||
 BetRivers
|
1.5 | BetRivers does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 3h ago | |
 Bovada
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 58m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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