Bo Nix — Passing Touchdowns
Projection 1.2
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 2 of 10 (20%).
Bo Nix Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 33.4% against 35.0% (an edge of -1.6 points) and is now 32.4% against 33.0% (-0.6 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 9:30 PM | 33.4% | 35.0% | -1.6 |
| Oct 27, 9:40 PM | 34.5% | 35.0% | -0.5 |
| Oct 27, 10:00 PM | 33.3% | 33.8% | -0.5 |
| Oct 27, 10:20 PM | 35.3% | 33.8% | 1.5 |
| Oct 27, 10:30 PM | 35.4% | 34.0% | 1.4 |
| Oct 27, 10:40 PM | 33.5% | 34.5% | -1 |
| Oct 27, 10:50 PM | 32.7% | 34.1% | -1.4 |
| Oct 27, 11:00 PM | 33.1% | 33.5% | -0.4 |
| Oct 28, 12:10 AM | 33.6% | 35.0% | -1.4 |
| Oct 28, 5:50 AM | 33.6% | 33.8% | -0.2 |
| Oct 28, 2:00 PM | 34.3% | 34.0% | 0.3 |
| Oct 28, 2:10 PM | 34.0% | 33.5% | 0.5 |
| Oct 28, 2:20 PM | 33.7% | 33.1% | 0.6 |
| Oct 28, 2:40 PM | 32.9% | 33.0% | -0.1 |
| Oct 28, 4:00 PM | 31.8% | 34.0% | -2.2 |
| Oct 28, 5:00 PM | 33.1% | 33.8% | -0.7 |
| Oct 28, 5:50 PM | 32.9% | 33.4% | -0.5 |
| Oct 28, 8:40 PM | 33.1% | 33.8% | -0.7 |
| Oct 28, 9:50 PM | 33.0% | 33.0% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:00 PM | 34.3% | 34.0% | 0.3 |
| Oct 28, 11:20 PM | 31.2% | 33.8% | -2.6 |
| Oct 29, 2:50 AM | 33.0% | 33.9% | -0.9 |
| Oct 29, 3:00 AM | 32.3% | 33.8% | -1.5 |
| Oct 29, 3:10 AM | 31.7% | 33.4% | -1.7 |
| Oct 29, 4:00 AM | 31.6% | 33.8% | -2.2 |
| Oct 29, 1:50 PM | 33.6% | 34.5% | -0.9 |
| Oct 29, 2:20 PM | 32.2% | 35.0% | -2.8 |
| Oct 29, 4:10 PM | 34.0% | 34.0% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 7:00 PM | 33.0% | 34.5% | -1.5 |
| Oct 29, 9:00 PM | 32.7% | 34.0% | -1.3 |
| Oct 29, 9:10 PM | 32.9% | 35.0% | -2.1 |
| Oct 29, 9:40 PM | 33.8% | 34.8% | -1 |
| Oct 29, 10:40 PM | 31.8% | 35.0% | -3.2 |
| Oct 29, 11:50 PM | 33.0% | 33.3% | -0.3 |
| Oct 30, 12:00 AM | 31.8% | 32.6% | -0.8 |
| Oct 30, 10:40 AM | 34.3% | 33.0% | 1.3 |
| Oct 30, 10:50 AM | 33.1% | 34.0% | -0.9 |
| Oct 30, 11:10 AM | 33.5% | 34.5% | -1 |
| Oct 30, 1:00 PM | 33.4% | 36.0% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 32.6% | 35.5% | -2.9 |
| Oct 30, 1:50 PM | 32.2% | 34.0% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 3:40 PM | 32.7% | 33.0% | -0.3 |
| Oct 30, 3:50 PM | 32.3% | 34.9% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 33.6% | 34.5% | -0.9 |
| Oct 30, 5:10 PM | 33.8% | 34.0% | -0.2 |
| Oct 30, 9:00 PM | 34.0% | 33.0% | 1 |
| Oct 30, 10:50 PM | 32.3% | 35.0% | -2.7 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 PM | 29.6% | 35.0% | -5.4 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 AM | 29.1% | 35.0% | -5.9 |
| Oct 31, 12:40 AM | 32.1% | 34.0% | -1.9 |
| Oct 31, 1:30 AM | 32.9% | 34.0% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 10:40 AM | 34.6% | 32.1% | 2.5 |
| Oct 31, 1:37 PM | 32.4% | 33.0% | -0.6 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing bo nix passing touchdowns are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 40m ago | ||
 Bovada
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 16h ago | ||
| Courtside | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 16h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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