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Pat Freiermuth — Receptions

Projection 2.9

+0.49pp vs fair: KalshiKalshi prices the over at +73312%12¢ against Rebet's +10728.5%9¢ .

Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (2.5)

Teal bars cleared 2.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).

Pat Freiermuth Receptions 2.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 53.6% against 57.4% (an edge of -3.8 points) and is now 56.9% against 58.0% (-1.1 points).

De-vigged book consensus against the prediction-market price, by time
Time Book consensus, de-vigged Prediction market Edge in percentage points
Oct 28, 7:50 PM 53.6% 57.4% -3.8
Oct 28, 8:00 PM 52.3% 58.2% -5.9
Oct 28, 9:20 PM 54.1% 58.0% -3.9
Oct 28, 10:00 PM 52.6% 53.9% -1.3
Oct 28, 11:20 PM 54.9% 57.6% -2.7
Oct 28, 11:50 PM 54.0% 60.9% -6.9
Oct 29, 12:10 AM 53.5% 59.0% -5.5
Oct 29, 3:50 AM 53.6% 59.7% -6.1
Oct 29, 4:00 AM 54.0% 58.7% -4.7
Oct 29, 4:10 AM 54.6% 59.1% -4.5
Oct 29, 4:20 AM 54.8% 59.5% -4.7
Oct 29, 4:30 AM 53.8% 57.8% -4
Oct 29, 5:40 AM 53.1% 59.4% -6.3
Oct 29, 5:50 AM 52.6% 59.7% -7.1
Oct 29, 6:10 AM 52.0% 59.7% -7.7
Oct 29, 6:40 AM 51.9% 58.7% -6.8
Oct 29, 10:50 AM 52.9% 59.4% -6.5
Oct 29, 11:20 AM 54.5% 59.4% -4.9
Oct 29, 12:50 PM 52.5% 59.7% -7.2
Oct 29, 1:40 PM 53.9% 60.0% -6.1
Oct 29, 1:50 PM 54.1% 59.5% -5.4
Oct 29, 2:20 PM 54.9% 60.0% -5.1
Oct 29, 3:10 PM 54.4% 60.3% -5.9
Oct 29, 3:30 PM 54.3% 60.3% -6
Oct 29, 4:00 PM 54.5% 60.0% -5.5
Oct 29, 5:40 PM 52.0% 59.4% -7.4
Oct 29, 5:50 PM 52.5% 59.0% -6.5
Oct 29, 9:20 PM 55.9% 58.0% -2.1
Oct 29, 9:30 PM 54.9% 56.6% -1.7
Oct 29, 11:10 PM 54.5% 58.0% -3.5
Oct 29, 11:50 PM 55.9% 59.7% -3.8
Oct 30, 4:00 AM 57.2% 59.3% -2.1
Oct 30, 6:00 AM 58.6% 57.1% 1.5
Oct 30, 10:00 AM 58.5% 60.0% -1.5
Oct 30, 11:10 AM 55.4% 57.1% -1.7
Oct 30, 1:40 PM 57.1% 59.0% -1.9
Oct 30, 2:10 PM 57.8% 58.0% -0.2
Oct 30, 2:20 PM 55.9% 58.1% -2.2
Oct 30, 4:00 PM 58.6% 60.0% -1.4
Oct 30, 4:20 PM 56.5% 59.0% -2.5
Oct 30, 4:30 PM 56.3% 59.5% -3.2
Oct 30, 5:20 PM 55.5% 59.0% -3.5
Oct 30, 9:00 PM 60.7% 58.0% 2.7
Oct 30, 10:30 PM 55.8% 60.9% -5.1
Oct 30, 11:50 PM 59.2% 60.9% -1.7
Oct 31, 12:00 AM 58.5% 59.5% -1
Oct 31, 1:30 AM 56.7% 60.9% -4.2
Oct 31, 1:00 PM 57.6% 57.4% 0.2
Oct 31, 2:10 PM 56.2% 59.7% -3.5
Oct 31, 4:30 PM 56.9% 58.0% -1.1
Oct 31, 4:40 PM 58.0% 57.6% 0.4
Oct 31, 10:00 PM 56.6% 58.0% -1.4
Oct 31, 6:09 PM 56.9% 58.0% -1.1

Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.

Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing pat freiermuth receptions are still live.

Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.

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Updated about 1 hour ago.