Jake Ferguson — Receptions
Projection 2.1
+0.89pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
+80911%11¢
against
Hard Rock Bet's
+75011.8%12¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (2.5)
Teal bars cleared 2.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Jake Ferguson Receptions 2.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 42.2% against 39.5% (an edge of 2.7 points) and is now 40.9% against 39.0% (1.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 11:10 PM | 42.2% | 39.5% | 2.7 |
| Oct 28, 11:20 PM | 39.5% | 40.0% | -0.5 |
| Oct 29, 12:10 AM | 43.4% | 39.1% | 4.3 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM | 38.5% | 39.1% | -0.6 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM | 37.8% | 39.1% | -1.3 |
| Oct 29, 2:50 AM | 44.6% | 40.0% | 4.6 |
| Oct 29, 3:20 AM | 43.3% | 39.6% | 3.7 |
| Oct 29, 3:30 AM | 43.3% | 40.0% | 3.3 |
| Oct 29, 3:40 AM | 41.9% | 40.0% | 1.9 |
| Oct 29, 3:50 AM | 41.4% | 40.0% | 1.4 |
| Oct 29, 4:00 AM | 37.3% | 40.0% | -2.7 |
| Oct 29, 5:40 AM | 41.9% | 40.0% | 1.9 |
| Oct 29, 5:50 AM | 41.5% | 45.2% | -3.7 |
| Oct 29, 6:00 AM | 38.0% | 40.0% | -2 |
| Oct 29, 7:20 AM | 38.2% | 42.0% | -3.8 |
| Oct 29, 8:30 AM | 40.1% | 46.1% | -6 |
| Oct 29, 11:20 AM | 40.5% | 42.4% | -1.9 |
| Oct 29, 11:30 AM | 40.6% | 44.8% | -4.2 |
| Oct 29, 3:10 PM | 41.3% | 41.0% | 0.3 |
| Oct 29, 4:00 PM | 40.4% | 40.8% | -0.4 |
| Oct 29, 7:20 PM | 39.8% | 42.0% | -2.2 |
| Oct 29, 7:30 PM | 40.4% | 42.2% | -1.8 |
| Oct 29, 9:10 PM | 42.5% | 42.0% | 0.5 |
| Oct 29, 9:40 PM | 43.4% | 42.0% | 1.4 |
| Oct 29, 10:20 PM | 38.5% | 45.7% | -7.2 |
| Oct 29, 11:30 PM | 43.3% | 45.7% | -2.4 |
| Oct 30, 1:30 AM | 35.6% | 46.7% | -11.1 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 39.3% | 38.3% | 1 |
| Oct 30, 5:40 AM | 37.1% | 42.0% | -4.9 |
| Oct 30, 5:50 AM | 42.1% | 39.0% | 3.1 |
| Oct 30, 6:20 AM | 39.0% | 40.0% | -1 |
| Oct 30, 6:30 AM | 36.3% | 40.0% | -3.7 |
| Oct 30, 6:40 AM | 37.5% | 39.3% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 7:20 AM | 39.2% | 38.8% | 0.4 |
| Oct 30, 10:00 AM | 41.4% | 38.5% | 2.9 |
| Oct 30, 11:10 AM | 38.4% | 42.4% | -4 |
| Oct 30, 12:50 PM | 41.7% | 39.1% | 2.6 |
| Oct 30, 1:30 PM | 36.3% | 38.8% | -2.5 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 41.0% | 38.5% | 2.5 |
| Oct 30, 4:10 PM | 35.6% | 38.5% | -2.9 |
| Oct 30, 5:40 PM | 37.1% | 39.1% | -2 |
| Oct 30, 6:20 PM | 35.0% | 37.0% | -2 |
| Oct 30, 9:20 PM | 41.9% | 38.2% | 3.7 |
| Oct 30, 9:30 PM | 38.7% | 38.5% | 0.2 |
| Oct 30, 9:40 PM | 36.3% | 38.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 30, 9:50 PM | 37.1% | 38.5% | -1.4 |
| Oct 30, 10:00 PM | 37.1% | 39.1% | -2 |
| Oct 30, 10:10 PM | 36.3% | 39.1% | -2.8 |
| Oct 30, 10:20 PM | 40.6% | 38.5% | 2.1 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 36.3% | 38.5% | -2.2 |
| Oct 30, 10:40 PM | 36.3% | 38.5% | -2.2 |
| Oct 30, 10:50 PM | 36.3% | 38.5% | -2.2 |
| Oct 30, 11:20 PM | 42.0% | 38.5% | 3.5 |
| Oct 30, 11:30 PM | 36.3% | 38.5% | -2.2 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 AM | 41.6% | 38.8% | 2.8 |
| Oct 31, 12:50 AM | 36.3% | 38.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 4:50 AM | 37.1% | 37.0% | 0.1 |
| Oct 31, 6:10 AM | 37.8% | 38.0% | -0.2 |
| Oct 31, 6:20 AM | 37.8% | 37.9% | -0.1 |
| Oct 31, 6:30 AM | 38.2% | 38.5% | -0.3 |
| Oct 31, 6:40 AM | 39.1% | 38.8% | 0.3 |
| Oct 31, 6:50 AM | 36.3% | 38.2% | -1.9 |
| Oct 31, 7:00 AM | 36.3% | 38.5% | -2.2 |
| Oct 31, 7:10 AM | 36.3% | 37.9% | -1.6 |
| Oct 31, 7:20 AM | 36.3% | 38.1% | -1.8 |
| Oct 31, 7:30 AM | 37.8% | 38.5% | -0.7 |
| Oct 31, 7:40 AM | 37.8% | 38.0% | -0.2 |
| Oct 31, 7:50 AM | 36.3% | 38.2% | -1.9 |
| Oct 31, 8:00 AM | 37.8% | 38.2% | -0.4 |
| Oct 31, 8:10 AM | 36.3% | 38.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 8:20 AM | 37.1% | 38.2% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 8:30 AM | 37.8% | 37.5% | 0.3 |
| Oct 31, 8:40 AM | 37.8% | 41.0% | -3.2 |
| Oct 31, 10:50 AM | 37.1% | 37.5% | -0.4 |
| Oct 31, 11:00 AM | 37.8% | 37.5% | 0.3 |
| Oct 31, 11:30 AM | 42.6% | 38.0% | 4.6 |
| Oct 31, 11:40 AM | 37.8% | 40.3% | -2.5 |
| Oct 31, 11:50 AM | 36.3% | 43.7% | -7.4 |
| Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 37.8% | 38.8% | -1 |
| Oct 31, 12:10 PM | 37.1% | 38.8% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 PM | 37.1% | 38.2% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 12:30 PM | 37.8% | 43.9% | -6.1 |
| Oct 31, 12:40 PM | 37.8% | 37.9% | -0.1 |
| Oct 31, 12:50 PM | 38.4% | 38.4% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:00 PM | 37.8% | 38.3% | -0.5 |
| Oct 31, 1:10 PM | 37.7% | 38.8% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 1:20 PM | 37.8% | 38.5% | -0.7 |
| Oct 31, 1:30 PM | 36.3% | 38.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 1:40 PM | 36.3% | 38.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 1:50 PM | 37.1% | 38.2% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 2:00 PM | 36.3% | 37.9% | -1.6 |
| Oct 31, 2:20 PM | 40.2% | 38.0% | 2.2 |
| Oct 31, 2:30 PM | 37.1% | 42.7% | -5.6 |
| Oct 31, 2:40 PM | 37.1% | 40.2% | -3.1 |
| Oct 31, 2:50 PM | 42.1% | 37.5% | 4.6 |
| Oct 31, 3:10 PM | 37.1% | 38.2% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 3:40 PM | 37.1% | 38.0% | -0.9 |
| Oct 31, 4:20 PM | 37.1% | 37.3% | -0.2 |
| Oct 31, 5:00 PM | 43.4% | 37.8% | 5.6 |
| Oct 31, 5:30 PM | 40.1% | 38.5% | 1.6 |
| Oct 31, 5:40 PM | 40.8% | 38.4% | 2.4 |
| Oct 31, 9:10 PM | 35.6% | 37.6% | -2 |
| Oct 31, 10:00 PM | 38.7% | 37.3% | 1.4 |
| Oct 31, 10:40 PM | 39.5% | 37.5% | 2 |
| Oct 31, 10:50 PM | 38.4% | 38.7% | -0.3 |
| Oct 31, 11:10 PM | 38.0% | 38.0% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:30 PM | 38.1% | 40.0% | -1.9 |
| Oct 31, 11:40 PM | 37.5% | 38.8% | -1.3 |
| Oct 31, 11:50 PM | 39.4% | 38.8% | 0.6 |
| Nov 1, 12:50 AM | 37.8% | 40.0% | -2.2 |
| Nov 1, 1:00 AM | 36.3% | 37.5% | -1.2 |
| Nov 1, 1:10 AM | 37.1% | 37.5% | -0.4 |
| Nov 1, 1:20 AM | 37.8% | 37.8% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:30 AM | 36.3% | 37.6% | -1.3 |
| Nov 1, 1:40 AM | 37.5% | 37.6% | -0.1 |
| Nov 1, 2:30 AM | 35.6% | 37.6% | -2 |
| Nov 1, 2:40 AM | 36.3% | 37.6% | -1.3 |
| Nov 1, 2:50 AM | 37.1% | 37.6% | -0.5 |
| Nov 1, 3:00 AM | 37.1% | 38.0% | -0.9 |
| Nov 1, 3:10 AM | 35.6% | 38.0% | -2.4 |
| Nov 1, 3:20 AM | 36.3% | 40.0% | -3.7 |
| Nov 1, 3:30 AM | 36.3% | 39.4% | -3.1 |
| Nov 1, 4:20 AM | 37.1% | 37.3% | -0.2 |
| Nov 1, 4:40 AM | 36.3% | 44.2% | -7.9 |
| Nov 1, 5:50 AM | 35.6% | 42.0% | -6.4 |
| Nov 1, 6:40 AM | 38.5% | 37.6% | 0.9 |
| Nov 1, 6:50 AM | 38.9% | 37.3% | 1.6 |
| Nov 1, 8:10 AM | 40.4% | 37.5% | 2.9 |
| Nov 1, 8:20 AM | 39.8% | 37.0% | 2.8 |
| Nov 1, 10:40 AM | 38.7% | 37.9% | 0.8 |
| Nov 1, 11:20 AM | 35.6% | 37.6% | -2 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 AM | 36.3% | 36.0% | 0.3 |
| Nov 1, 11:50 AM | 39.1% | 37.0% | 2.1 |
| Nov 1, 12:50 PM | 38.7% | 37.7% | 1 |
| Nov 1, 1:10 PM | 37.1% | 37.5% | -0.4 |
| Nov 1, 2:50 PM | 40.4% | 37.5% | 2.9 |
| Nov 1, 3:50 PM | 39.6% | 38.0% | 1.6 |
| Nov 1, 4:20 PM | 39.9% | 38.0% | 1.9 |
| Nov 1, 4:40 PM | 41.3% | 38.0% | 3.3 |
| Nov 1, 5:10 PM | 42.2% | 40.0% | 2.2 |
| Nov 1, 5:30 PM | 40.3% | 40.9% | -0.6 |
| Nov 1, 5:40 PM | 43.3% | 42.0% | 1.3 |
| Nov 1, 5:50 PM | 42.2% | 40.0% | 2.2 |
| Nov 1, 12:58 PM | 40.9% | 39.0% | 1.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing jake ferguson receptions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 57m ago | ||
 BetMGM
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 1h ago | ||
 Bovada
|
2.5 | Bovada does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 16h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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