Projection 4.0
+0.4pp vs fair:
Kalshi
prices the over at
-11353.1%53¢
against
Stoiximan's
-12856.1%56¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (3.5)
Teal bars cleared 3.5 — 1 of 10 (10%).
Courtland Sutton Receptions 3.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 58.6% against 64.3% (an edge of -5.7 points) and is now 55.0% against 54.9% (0.1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 3:00 PM | 58.6% | 64.3% | -5.7 |
| Oct 31, 3:10 PM | 53.5% | 63.8% | -10.3 |
| Oct 31, 5:20 PM | 58.1% | 55.9% | 2.2 |
| Oct 31, 5:30 PM | 56.1% | 54.8% | 1.3 |
| Oct 31, 5:40 PM | 55.9% | 53.9% | 2 |
| Oct 31, 8:20 PM | 55.0% | 55.8% | -0.8 |
| Oct 31, 10:00 PM | 54.9% | 55.0% | -0.1 |
| Oct 31, 6:20 PM | 55.0% | 54.9% | 0.1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing courtland sutton receptions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 7h ago | ||
|
|
3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 2h ago | ||
| Courtside | 3.5 | Courtside does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 3h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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