Travis Kelce — Receptions
Projection 4.2
+1.24pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
+12544.4%44¢
against
Stoiximan's
+12744.1%44¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (4.5)
Teal bars cleared 4.5 — 3 of 10 (30%).
Travis Kelce Receptions 4.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 51.0% against 55.0% (an edge of -4 points) and is now 44.6% against 44.5% (0.1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 4:00 PM | 51.0% | 55.0% | -4 |
| Oct 28, 10:00 PM | 51.7% | 54.5% | -2.8 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM | 50.0% | 52.5% | -2.5 |
| Oct 28, 11:10 PM | 47.7% | 53.5% | -5.8 |
| Oct 29, 12:10 AM | 50.2% | 54.8% | -4.6 |
| Oct 29, 2:50 AM | 46.9% | 54.5% | -7.6 |
| Oct 29, 3:00 AM | 47.1% | 53.5% | -6.4 |
| Oct 29, 3:10 AM | 45.6% | 53.3% | -7.7 |
| Oct 29, 6:00 AM | 45.2% | 53.3% | -8.1 |
| Oct 29, 6:10 AM | 49.0% | 53.3% | -4.3 |
| Oct 29, 1:40 PM | 49.2% | 51.9% | -2.7 |
| Oct 29, 1:50 PM | 47.9% | 50.0% | -2.1 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 PM | 48.8% | 49.0% | -0.2 |
| Oct 29, 7:20 PM | 49.8% | 48.2% | 1.6 |
| Oct 29, 7:30 PM | 46.7% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Oct 29, 7:40 PM | 49.9% | 48.9% | 1 |
| Oct 29, 8:20 PM | 49.6% | 48.3% | 1.3 |
| Oct 29, 9:20 PM | 46.4% | 48.1% | -1.7 |
| Oct 29, 9:40 PM | 48.7% | 48.1% | 0.6 |
| Oct 29, 10:00 PM | 48.5% | 49.0% | -0.5 |
| Oct 29, 11:50 PM | 45.5% | 48.1% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 4:10 AM | 47.0% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Oct 30, 4:20 AM | 46.6% | 47.8% | -1.2 |
| Oct 30, 7:00 AM | 49.1% | 48.7% | 0.4 |
| Oct 30, 11:40 AM | 45.5% | 48.1% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 AM | 46.5% | 47.3% | -0.8 |
| Oct 30, 12:00 PM | 45.5% | 48.1% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 12:30 PM | 45.5% | 48.1% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 12:40 PM | 46.5% | 47.4% | -0.9 |
| Oct 30, 3:30 PM | 44.2% | 47.4% | -3.2 |
| Oct 30, 3:40 PM | 45.5% | 47.2% | -1.7 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 46.1% | 47.4% | -1.3 |
| Oct 30, 4:30 PM | 46.5% | 47.2% | -0.7 |
| Oct 30, 5:10 PM | 43.3% | 47.5% | -4.2 |
| Oct 30, 6:20 PM | 44.8% | 48.1% | -3.3 |
| Oct 30, 6:30 PM | 43.7% | 47.4% | -3.7 |
| Oct 30, 8:40 PM | 41.3% | 47.4% | -6.1 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 42.2% | 46.1% | -3.9 |
| Oct 30, 10:50 PM | 43.0% | 44.8% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 11:00 PM | 41.5% | 45.5% | -4 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 PM | 42.7% | 44.6% | -1.9 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 AM | 41.5% | 44.9% | -3.4 |
| Oct 31, 1:10 AM | 45.5% | 45.8% | -0.3 |
| Oct 31, 1:20 AM | 45.5% | 45.4% | 0.1 |
| Oct 31, 1:40 AM | 44.6% | 45.5% | -0.9 |
| Oct 31, 1:50 AM | 46.5% | 45.5% | 1 |
| Oct 31, 2:00 AM | 44.2% | 44.8% | -0.6 |
| Oct 31, 4:00 AM | 42.6% | 44.8% | -2.2 |
| Oct 31, 4:10 AM | 43.0% | 44.8% | -1.8 |
| Oct 31, 10:30 AM | 44.1% | 44.1% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:40 AM | 44.6% | 45.1% | -0.5 |
| Oct 31, 11:30 AM | 44.0% | 45.0% | -1 |
| Oct 31, 1:10 PM | 43.3% | 45.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 1:20 PM | 43.5% | 44.1% | -0.6 |
| Oct 31, 1:30 PM | 43.7% | 45.0% | -1.3 |
| Oct 31, 1:40 PM | 42.9% | 45.0% | -2.1 |
| Oct 31, 1:50 PM | 43.0% | 45.0% | -2 |
| Oct 31, 2:00 PM | 44.6% | 45.0% | -0.4 |
| Oct 31, 2:30 PM | 44.2% | 45.0% | -0.8 |
| Oct 31, 2:40 PM | 44.4% | 45.0% | -0.6 |
| Oct 31, 3:00 PM | 45.0% | 45.7% | -0.7 |
| Oct 31, 3:10 PM | 45.5% | 45.7% | -0.2 |
| Oct 31, 3:20 PM | 42.5% | 45.5% | -3 |
| Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 42.5% | 46.1% | -3.6 |
| Oct 31, 3:50 PM | 45.5% | 45.1% | 0.4 |
| Oct 31, 4:00 PM | 45.8% | 46.1% | -0.3 |
| Oct 31, 4:50 PM | 42.8% | 46.1% | -3.3 |
| Oct 31, 5:30 PM | 43.3% | 46.1% | -2.8 |
| Oct 31, 6:20 PM | 44.1% | 45.1% | -1 |
| Oct 31, 9:30 PM | 45.4% | 45.0% | 0.4 |
| Oct 31, 9:40 PM | 45.9% | 45.0% | 0.9 |
| Oct 31, 10:00 PM | 45.5% | 44.1% | 1.4 |
| Oct 31, 11:40 PM | 46.2% | 42.9% | 3.3 |
| Oct 31, 11:50 PM | 46.1% | 44.1% | 2 |
| Nov 1, 12:00 AM | 45.8% | 44.6% | 1.2 |
| Nov 1, 12:30 AM | 46.5% | 44.1% | 2.4 |
| Nov 1, 12:40 AM | 45.5% | 45.0% | 0.5 |
| Nov 1, 1:10 AM | 45.2% | 44.3% | 0.9 |
| Nov 1, 1:20 AM | 45.3% | 44.3% | 1 |
| Nov 1, 2:40 AM | 44.3% | 44.2% | 0.1 |
| Nov 1, 10:10 AM | 45.2% | 44.1% | 1.1 |
| Nov 1, 12:20 PM | 44.6% | 44.1% | 0.5 |
| Nov 1, 12:30 PM | 44.9% | 43.5% | 1.4 |
| Nov 1, 1:10 PM | 44.5% | 44.4% | 0.1 |
| Nov 1, 1:40 PM | 45.0% | 43.9% | 1.1 |
| Nov 1, 3:10 PM | 44.1% | 44.3% | -0.2 |
| Nov 1, 5:10 PM | 46.5% | 44.4% | 2.1 |
| Nov 1, 3:01 PM | 44.6% | 44.5% | 0.1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing travis kelce receptions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BetMGM
|
4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 9h ago | ||
 BetRivers
|
4.5 | BetRivers does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 1h ago | |
 Bovada
|
4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 6h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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