Joshua Palmer — Receptions

Projection 1.1

+0.07pp vs fair: Kalshi prices the over at +17836%36¢ against Bet99's +16537.7%38¢ .

Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)

Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 2 of 10 (20%).

Joshua Palmer Receptions 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 38.3% against 40.2% (an edge of -1.9 points) and is now 36.6% against 37.3% (-0.7 points).

De-vigged book consensus against the prediction-market price, by time
Time	Book consensus, de-vigged	Prediction market	Edge in percentage points
Oct 28, 4:00 PM	38.3%	40.2%	-1.9
Oct 28, 10:00 PM	38.9%	39.9%	-1
Oct 29, 1:10 AM	36.8%	37.9%	-1.1
Oct 29, 1:20 AM	36.6%	37.0%	-0.4
Oct 29, 4:00 AM	36.0%	37.0%	-1
Oct 29, 6:30 AM	38.0%	36.0%	2
Oct 29, 7:00 AM	36.8%	38.0%	-1.2
Oct 29, 9:00 AM	36.5%	37.0%	-0.5
Oct 29, 4:00 PM	34.3%	37.0%	-2.7
Oct 29, 5:00 PM	37.2%	34.5%	2.7
Oct 29, 5:20 PM	34.5%	37.0%	-2.5
Oct 29, 5:30 PM	35.4%	37.0%	-1.6
Oct 29, 5:40 PM	35.9%	36.0%	-0.1
Oct 29, 6:00 PM	35.6%	35.3%	0.3
Oct 29, 8:20 PM	37.2%	37.0%	0.2
Oct 29, 8:40 PM	36.9%	37.2%	-0.3
Oct 29, 8:50 PM	38.4%	37.0%	1.4
Oct 30, 4:00 AM	38.9%	36.0%	2.9
Oct 30, 7:00 AM	36.0%	36.4%	-0.4
Oct 30, 10:20 AM	37.1%	35.0%	2.1
Oct 30, 1:00 PM	37.8%	37.0%	0.8
Oct 30, 1:10 PM	34.3%	38.8%	-4.5
Oct 30, 1:30 PM	35.6%	36.0%	-0.4
Oct 30, 1:40 PM	35.9%	37.0%	-1.1
Oct 30, 1:50 PM	34.3%	36.3%	-2
Oct 30, 2:20 PM	35.0%	37.4%	-2.4
Oct 30, 2:30 PM	35.6%	39.1%	-3.5
Oct 30, 2:40 PM	35.0%	39.1%	-4.1
Oct 30, 4:00 PM	37.5%	36.0%	1.5
Oct 30, 4:10 PM	35.6%	36.0%	-0.4
Oct 30, 8:50 PM	34.6%	36.0%	-1.4
Oct 30, 9:20 PM	40.3%	36.0%	4.3
Oct 30, 11:00 PM	38.7%	37.0%	1.7
Oct 30, 11:20 PM	38.6%	36.0%	2.6
Oct 30, 11:30 PM	35.7%	37.0%	-1.3
Oct 31, 12:30 AM	37.8%	37.0%	0.8
Oct 31, 3:40 AM	37.3%	38.0%	-0.7
Oct 31, 3:50 AM	37.1%	37.0%	0.1
Oct 31, 7:00 AM	38.3%	37.0%	1.3
Oct 31, 2:40 PM	35.7%	39.1%	-3.4
Oct 31, 2:50 PM	36.1%	41.0%	-4.9
Oct 31, 3:00 PM	38.0%	39.5%	-1.5
Oct 31, 5:10 PM	36.0%	43.9%	-7.9
Oct 31, 5:20 PM	36.9%	43.1%	-6.2
Oct 31, 5:30 PM	38.5%	37.0%	1.5
Oct 31, 5:50 PM	38.7%	36.0%	2.7
Oct 31, 6:50 PM	37.5%	37.0%	0.5
Oct 31, 7:00 PM	36.0%	35.7%	0.3
Oct 31, 7:10 PM	39.1%	42.4%	-3.3
Oct 31, 7:20 PM	37.9%	36.0%	1.9
Oct 31, 8:00 PM	34.8%	37.5%	-2.7
Oct 31, 8:20 PM	35.3%	38.0%	-2.7
Oct 31, 8:30 PM	35.7%	40.7%	-5
Oct 31, 9:00 PM	37.8%	37.8%	0
Oct 31, 10:00 PM	36.2%	36.5%	-0.3
Oct 31, 6:09 PM	36.6%	37.3%	-0.7

Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.

Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing joshua palmer receptions are still live.

Every venue pricing Joshua Palmer Receptions
Venue	Line	Over	Under	Vs best	Age
Bet99	1.5	+165 37.7%	-225 69.2%	Premium to see the gap to the best price	Bet99 last repriced this 1h ago
Bovada	1.5	+140 41.7%	-185 64.9%	Premium to see the gap to the best price	Bovada last repriced this 3h ago
Courtside	1.5	— —	— Courtside does not price the under	Premium to see the gap to the best price	Courtside last repriced this 3h ago

Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.

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Updated about 2 hours ago.