Puka Nacua — Receptions
Projection 8.2
+2.12pp vs fair:
Kalshi
prices the over at
-10851.9%52¢
against
Pinnacle's
-13357.1%57¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (7.5)
Teal bars cleared 7.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).
Puka Nacua Receptions 7.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 51.0% against 55.9% (an edge of -4.9 points) and is now 54.0% against 53.1% (0.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 6:30 PM | 51.0% | 55.9% | -4.9 |
| Oct 28, 7:10 PM | 49.5% | 55.6% | -6.1 |
| Oct 28, 7:30 PM | 46.7% | 55.8% | -9.1 |
| Oct 28, 7:40 PM | 49.0% | 55.9% | -6.9 |
| Oct 28, 10:00 PM | 50.9% | 56.9% | -6 |
| Oct 28, 10:10 PM | 49.3% | 58.0% | -8.7 |
| Oct 28, 10:20 PM | 50.0% | 56.2% | -6.2 |
| Oct 29, 12:00 AM | 50.8% | 55.2% | -4.4 |
| Oct 29, 3:10 AM | 50.0% | 55.0% | -5 |
| Oct 29, 3:20 AM | 46.4% | 55.5% | -9.1 |
| Oct 29, 6:10 AM | 52.0% | 56.1% | -4.1 |
| Oct 29, 11:30 AM | 51.5% | 55.9% | -4.4 |
| Oct 29, 11:40 AM | 51.8% | 54.5% | -2.7 |
| Oct 29, 12:10 PM | 52.6% | 55.9% | -3.3 |
| Oct 29, 12:20 PM | 52.2% | 57.6% | -5.4 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 PM | 51.4% | 57.2% | -5.8 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 PM | 51.3% | 56.3% | -5 |
| Oct 29, 1:20 PM | 53.7% | 57.1% | -3.4 |
| Oct 29, 1:40 PM | 54.1% | 55.9% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 54.5% | 54.5% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 7:00 AM | 53.7% | 55.0% | -1.3 |
| Oct 30, 8:00 AM | 54.3% | 53.9% | 0.4 |
| Oct 30, 11:10 AM | 55.4% | 53.9% | 1.5 |
| Oct 30, 11:20 AM | 54.9% | 54.4% | 0.5 |
| Oct 30, 11:30 AM | 55.8% | 54.1% | 1.7 |
| Oct 30, 12:50 PM | 53.6% | 55.9% | -2.3 |
| Oct 30, 1:00 PM | 53.6% | 53.9% | -0.3 |
| Oct 30, 1:30 PM | 54.5% | 55.2% | -0.7 |
| Oct 30, 1:50 PM | 54.4% | 55.0% | -0.6 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 54.5% | 53.9% | 0.6 |
| Oct 30, 4:50 PM | 53.3% | 54.1% | -0.8 |
| Oct 30, 9:30 PM | 53.5% | 53.5% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 54.4% | 53.7% | 0.7 |
| Oct 30, 10:40 PM | 54.1% | 53.9% | 0.2 |
| Oct 31, 12:50 AM | 52.0% | 54.7% | -2.7 |
| Oct 31, 2:00 AM | 53.5% | 54.0% | -0.5 |
| Oct 31, 6:10 AM | 53.3% | 53.9% | -0.6 |
| Oct 31, 11:30 AM | 53.7% | 53.1% | 0.6 |
| Oct 31, 11:40 AM | 53.5% | 52.6% | 0.9 |
| Oct 31, 12:30 PM | 54.5% | 53.1% | 1.4 |
| Oct 31, 1:10 PM | 54.4% | 53.3% | 1.1 |
| Oct 31, 1:50 PM | 55.8% | 53.9% | 1.9 |
| Oct 31, 2:10 PM | 53.0% | 54.1% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 4:00 PM | 54.0% | 52.6% | 1.4 |
| Oct 31, 4:30 PM | 55.8% | 53.5% | 2.3 |
| Oct 31, 4:50 PM | 54.5% | 52.6% | 1.9 |
| Oct 31, 5:20 PM | 53.5% | 53.9% | -0.4 |
| Oct 31, 5:30 PM | 55.5% | 53.1% | 2.4 |
| Oct 31, 5:40 PM | 54.1% | 52.6% | 1.5 |
| Oct 31, 10:00 PM | 54.5% | 53.1% | 1.4 |
| Oct 31, 7:09 PM | 54.0% | 53.1% | 0.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing puka nacua receptions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 7.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 5h ago | ||
 BetMGM
|
7.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 1d ago | ||
|
Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
7.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 5h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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