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Aaron Jones — Anytime Touchdown

Projection 0.3

Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)

Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 3 of 10 (30%).

Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 46.2% against 51.9% (an edge of -5.7 points) and is now 45.5% against 49.0% (-3.5 points).

De-vigged book consensus against the prediction-market price, by time
Time Book consensus, de-vigged Prediction market Edge in percentage points
Oct 27, 4:00 PM 46.2% 51.9% -5.7
Oct 28, 1:50 AM 44.2% 51.0% -6.8
Oct 28, 3:00 PM 45.5% 51.9% -6.4
Oct 28, 9:40 PM 46.5% 46.9% -0.4
Oct 29, 4:20 AM 45.5% 49.2% -3.7
Oct 29, 3:21 AM 45.5% 49.0% -3.5

Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.

Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing aaron jones anytime touchdown are still live.

Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.

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Updated about 3 hours ago.