Aaron Rodgers — Passing Touchdowns
Projection 1.4
+0.7pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
+56715%15¢
against
Rebet's
+69612.6%13¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 4 of 10 (40%).
Aaron Rodgers Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 40.5% against 43.5% (an edge of -3 points) and is now 41.7% against 42.9% (-1.2 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 7:40 PM | 40.5% | 43.5% | -3 |
| Oct 28, 10:00 PM | 41.1% | 42.9% | -1.8 |
| Oct 29, 2:10 AM | 39.1% | 45.5% | -6.4 |
| Oct 29, 2:40 AM | 40.4% | 44.2% | -3.8 |
| Oct 29, 3:20 AM | 39.3% | 44.2% | -4.9 |
| Oct 29, 3:30 AM | 38.5% | 44.6% | -6.1 |
| Oct 29, 3:50 AM | 39.0% | 40.8% | -1.8 |
| Oct 29, 4:00 AM | 40.2% | 40.5% | -0.3 |
| Oct 29, 4:10 AM | 41.3% | 40.0% | 1.3 |
| Oct 29, 5:50 AM | 38.6% | 40.0% | -1.4 |
| Oct 29, 7:00 AM | 40.1% | 40.0% | 0.1 |
| Oct 29, 9:40 AM | 37.7% | 39.6% | -1.9 |
| Oct 29, 9:50 AM | 39.6% | 40.3% | -0.7 |
| Oct 29, 10:00 AM | 38.8% | 40.5% | -1.7 |
| Oct 29, 2:20 PM | 39.4% | 40.3% | -0.9 |
| Oct 29, 3:50 PM | 39.1% | 39.9% | -0.8 |
| Oct 29, 4:00 PM | 37.7% | 39.9% | -2.2 |
| Oct 29, 5:10 PM | 39.1% | 40.0% | -0.9 |
| Oct 29, 5:20 PM | 39.0% | 40.0% | -1 |
| Oct 29, 5:40 PM | 39.2% | 39.1% | 0.1 |
| Oct 29, 8:00 PM | 38.6% | 39.7% | -1.1 |
| Oct 29, 8:10 PM | 38.2% | 40.0% | -1.8 |
| Oct 29, 8:20 PM | 39.0% | 39.7% | -0.7 |
| Oct 29, 8:50 PM | 41.1% | 40.1% | 1 |
| Oct 29, 9:20 PM | 39.8% | 39.1% | 0.7 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 37.5% | 40.0% | -2.5 |
| Oct 30, 11:20 AM | 39.0% | 41.0% | -2 |
| Oct 30, 11:40 AM | 40.3% | 40.7% | -0.4 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 39.3% | 41.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 30, 2:10 PM | 39.4% | 42.0% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 2:20 PM | 38.9% | 41.5% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 39.8% | 40.0% | -0.2 |
| Oct 30, 9:00 PM | 38.6% | 41.5% | -2.9 |
| Oct 30, 9:10 PM | 40.6% | 42.5% | -1.9 |
| Oct 30, 10:10 PM | 38.6% | 42.0% | -3.4 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 39.8% | 42.4% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 PM | 38.0% | 42.6% | -4.6 |
| Oct 31, 12:00 AM | 39.2% | 41.0% | -1.8 |
| Oct 31, 9:20 AM | 43.7% | 42.4% | 1.3 |
| Oct 31, 9:30 AM | 40.9% | 41.0% | -0.1 |
| Oct 31, 4:10 PM | 41.6% | 42.9% | -1.3 |
| Oct 31, 4:30 PM | 40.9% | 42.0% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 4:50 PM | 41.6% | 43.9% | -2.3 |
| Oct 31, 6:10 PM | 45.2% | 43.5% | 1.7 |
| Oct 31, 2:28 PM | 41.7% | 42.9% | -1.2 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing aaron rodgers passing touchdowns are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 1h ago | ||
| Dst Propbuilder | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Dst Propbuilder last repriced this 1h ago | ||
 FanDuel
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 9h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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