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Daniel Jones — Passing Touchdowns

Projection 1.1

+0.26pp vs fair: KalshiKalshi prices the over at -17864%64¢ against FanDuelFanDuel's -18865.3%65¢ .

Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)

Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).

Daniel Jones Passing Touchdowns 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 63.7% against 66.0% (an edge of -2.3 points) and is now 63.5% against 65.0% (-1.5 points).

De-vigged book consensus against the prediction-market price, by time
Time Book consensus, de-vigged Prediction market Edge in percentage points
Oct 28, 8:00 AM 63.7% 66.0% -2.3
Oct 28, 10:00 AM 64.9% 69.0% -4.1
Oct 28, 2:30 PM 64.4% 65.6% -1.2
Oct 28, 3:00 PM 63.1% 65.6% -2.5
Oct 28, 3:50 PM 62.0% 65.6% -3.6
Oct 28, 4:00 PM 64.1% 65.3% -1.2
Oct 28, 4:20 PM 63.6% 64.4% -0.8
Oct 28, 4:30 PM 67.8% 64.4% 3.4
Oct 28, 4:50 PM 66.5% 64.5% 2
Oct 28, 6:00 PM 65.4% 64.9% 0.5
Oct 28, 6:10 PM 65.2% 64.8% 0.4
Oct 28, 8:10 PM 64.8% 68.1% -3.3
Oct 28, 8:40 PM 64.3% 64.8% -0.5
Oct 28, 10:00 PM 64.5% 66.0% -1.5
Oct 29, 4:00 AM 62.0% 65.0% -3
Oct 29, 4:50 AM 61.7% 64.8% -3.1
Oct 29, 5:00 AM 62.9% 65.0% -2.1
Oct 29, 5:50 AM 65.0% 64.0% 1
Oct 29, 7:00 AM 64.2% 65.9% -1.7
Oct 29, 7:10 AM 62.8% 65.6% -2.8
Oct 29, 9:00 AM 63.5% 64.8% -1.3
Oct 29, 4:20 PM 65.7% 66.0% -0.3
Oct 29, 8:00 PM 65.3% 65.0% 0.3
Oct 29, 8:10 PM 64.7% 65.0% -0.3
Oct 29, 8:50 PM 65.1% 66.0% -0.9
Oct 29, 9:20 PM 66.0% 65.0% 1
Oct 29, 11:50 PM 63.4% 64.8% -1.4
Oct 30, 3:20 AM 61.4% 64.5% -3.1
Oct 30, 4:20 AM 64.9% 64.3% 0.6
Oct 30, 11:10 AM 66.0% 64.5% 1.5
Oct 30, 11:20 AM 61.4% 64.3% -2.9
Oct 30, 12:50 PM 63.2% 67.7% -4.5
Oct 30, 1:20 PM 64.7% 73.0% -8.3
Oct 30, 1:30 PM 63.8% 75.0% -11.2
Oct 30, 1:40 PM 65.1% 70.6% -5.5
Oct 30, 2:00 PM 65.7% 66.6% -0.9
Oct 30, 2:10 PM 66.2% 66.6% -0.4
Oct 30, 3:30 PM 65.3% 65.8% -0.5
Oct 30, 4:00 PM 61.4% 64.3% -2.9
Oct 30, 4:50 PM 64.2% 66.0% -1.8
Oct 30, 5:00 PM 62.7% 65.0% -2.3
Oct 30, 5:10 PM 63.0% 65.3% -2.3
Oct 30, 5:30 PM 65.7% 66.0% -0.3
Oct 30, 8:40 PM 66.7% 66.4% 0.3
Oct 30, 9:00 PM 67.2% 66.0% 1.2
Oct 30, 9:20 PM 63.3% 67.0% -3.7
Oct 30, 9:40 PM 64.9% 65.5% -0.6
Oct 31, 12:00 AM 65.9% 66.4% -0.5
Oct 31, 8:10 AM 60.1% 65.8% -5.7
Oct 31, 8:20 AM 64.8% 64.8% 0
Oct 31, 8:50 AM 61.0% 66.0% -5
Oct 31, 9:00 AM 61.4% 66.0% -4.6
Oct 31, 9:10 AM 61.0% 65.0% -4
Oct 31, 11:30 AM 63.0% 65.8% -2.8
Oct 31, 11:50 AM 61.4% 66.0% -4.6
Oct 31, 1:00 PM 65.1% 65.2% -0.1
Oct 31, 2:10 PM 63.5% 65.0% -1.5
Oct 31, 4:00 PM 64.7% 65.0% -0.3
Oct 31, 4:10 PM 64.3% 65.0% -0.7
Oct 31, 4:30 PM 62.6% 65.0% -2.4
Oct 31, 5:10 PM 63.6% 64.0% -0.4
Oct 31, 10:00 PM 65.7% 65.3% 0.4
Oct 31, 6:09 PM 63.5% 65.0% -1.5

Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.

Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing daniel jones passing touchdowns are still live.

Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.

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All Passing Touchdowns props Prop Edge Tool

Updated about 4 hours ago.