Projection 2.0
+1.06pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
-13858%58¢
against
Bet99's
-14058.3%58¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Jacoby Brissett Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 57.9% against 60.9% (an edge of -3 points) and is now 58.1% against 59.0% (-0.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 9:50 PM | 57.9% | 60.9% | -3 |
| Oct 28, 10:00 PM | 56.7% | 63.2% | -6.5 |
| Oct 28, 10:10 PM | 56.3% | 62.4% | -6.1 |
| Oct 28, 10:20 PM | 58.4% | 60.9% | -2.5 |
| Oct 29, 12:30 AM | 58.9% | 63.8% | -4.9 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM | 58.1% | 63.2% | -5.1 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM | 59.1% | 63.5% | -4.4 |
| Oct 29, 1:00 AM | 59.5% | 65.8% | -6.3 |
| Oct 29, 2:10 AM | 55.4% | 64.8% | -9.4 |
| Oct 29, 2:50 AM | 53.5% | 61.5% | -8 |
| Oct 29, 3:00 AM | 57.7% | 64.0% | -6.3 |
| Oct 29, 3:30 AM | 52.0% | 66.2% | -14.2 |
| Oct 29, 4:10 AM | 60.4% | 60.9% | -0.5 |
| Oct 29, 5:50 AM | 55.2% | 64.0% | -8.8 |
| Oct 29, 6:00 AM | 51.0% | 63.5% | -12.5 |
| Oct 29, 10:00 AM | 59.2% | 61.8% | -2.6 |
| Oct 29, 11:00 AM | 54.4% | 63.5% | -9.1 |
| Oct 29, 11:10 AM | 56.9% | 63.5% | -6.6 |
| Oct 29, 11:20 AM | 54.6% | 63.5% | -8.9 |
| Oct 29, 11:30 AM | 56.5% | 63.8% | -7.3 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 PM | 57.1% | 63.8% | -6.7 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 PM | 56.9% | 60.9% | -4 |
| Oct 29, 4:00 PM | 58.2% | 61.5% | -3.3 |
| Oct 29, 5:00 PM | 60.2% | 62.5% | -2.3 |
| Oct 29, 7:20 PM | 58.1% | 63.1% | -5 |
| Oct 29, 7:30 PM | 56.8% | 62.7% | -5.9 |
| Oct 29, 8:40 PM | 58.7% | 63.0% | -4.3 |
| Oct 29, 9:00 PM | 55.6% | 63.0% | -7.4 |
| Oct 29, 9:10 PM | 51.0% | 60.9% | -9.9 |
| Oct 29, 9:20 PM | 56.0% | 62.4% | -6.4 |
| Oct 29, 9:50 PM | 60.1% | 62.4% | -2.3 |
| Oct 29, 10:50 PM | 54.1% | 62.4% | -8.3 |
| Oct 29, 11:00 PM | 57.1% | 60.9% | -3.8 |
| Oct 29, 11:10 PM | 59.1% | 63.0% | -3.9 |
| Oct 30, 2:30 AM | 59.7% | 61.5% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 56.0% | 61.5% | -5.5 |
| Oct 30, 5:40 AM | 60.1% | 62.2% | -2.1 |
| Oct 30, 5:50 AM | 54.4% | 60.9% | -6.5 |
| Oct 30, 11:10 AM | 59.2% | 62.3% | -3.1 |
| Oct 30, 11:30 AM | 56.2% | 63.0% | -6.8 |
| Oct 30, 11:40 AM | 58.3% | 63.0% | -4.7 |
| Oct 30, 1:00 PM | 58.3% | 63.2% | -4.9 |
| Oct 30, 1:20 PM | 60.1% | 61.9% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 58.5% | 63.5% | -5 |
| Oct 30, 2:20 PM | 58.5% | 62.8% | -4.3 |
| Oct 30, 2:30 PM | 58.0% | 62.4% | -4.4 |
| Oct 30, 3:30 PM | 57.5% | 62.1% | -4.6 |
| Oct 30, 5:50 PM | 58.7% | 60.9% | -2.2 |
| Oct 30, 9:20 PM | 52.9% | 61.5% | -8.6 |
| Oct 30, 9:40 PM | 56.5% | 62.0% | -5.5 |
| Oct 30, 10:20 PM | 56.3% | 60.9% | -4.6 |
| Oct 31, 8:20 PM | 51.4% | 59.0% | -7.6 |
| Oct 31, 9:20 PM | 54.5% | 58.0% | -3.5 |
| Oct 31, 9:40 PM | 56.9% | 60.0% | -3.1 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM | 58.1% | 59.0% | -0.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing jacoby brissett passing touchdowns are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 28m ago | ||
|
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 16m ago | ||
| Dst Propbuilder | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Dst Propbuilder last repriced this 3h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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