Projection 7.0
+0.46pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
+12045.5%45¢
against
Hard Rock Bet's
+11047.6%48¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (8.5)
Teal bars cleared 8.5 — 0 of 10 (0%).
Day'Ron Sharpe Rebounds 8.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 45.6% against 46.9% (an edge of -1.3 points) and is now 45.9% against 46.9% (-1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 4:40 AM | 45.6% | 46.9% | -1.3 |
| Nov 1, 7:50 AM | 46.1% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Nov 1, 10:50 AM | 46.4% | 47.6% | -1.2 |
| Nov 1, 12:00 PM | 46.9% | 48.3% | -1.4 |
| Nov 1, 12:30 PM | 45.9% | 47.4% | -1.5 |
| Nov 1, 2:00 PM | 44.6% | 48.1% | -3.5 |
| Nov 1, 2:20 PM | 45.6% | 46.9% | -1.3 |
| Nov 1, 3:00 PM | 45.5% | 46.9% | -1.4 |
| Nov 1, 5:50 PM | 47.4% | 48.1% | -0.7 |
| Nov 1, 8:00 PM | 46.8% | 48.3% | -1.5 |
| Nov 1, 8:20 PM | 46.1% | 48.3% | -2.2 |
| Nov 1, 8:30 PM | 49.0% | 44.4% | 4.6 |
| Nov 1, 3:38 PM | 45.9% | 46.9% | -1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing day'ron sharpe rebounds are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 8.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 8m ago | ||
|
|
8.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 5h ago | ||
|
|
7.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 3m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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