Projection 2.2
+0.41pp vs fair:
Kalshi
prices the over at
+61414%14¢
against
Hard Rock Bet's
+55015.4%15¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (2.5)
Teal bars cleared 2.5 — 4 of 10 (40%).
Toumani Camara Threes 2.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 43.9% against 48.5% (an edge of -4.6 points) and is now 46.5% against 49.0% (-2.5 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 4:50 AM | 43.9% | 48.5% | -4.6 |
| Oct 29, 5:00 AM | 45.6% | 48.5% | -2.9 |
| Oct 29, 5:20 AM | 46.6% | 46.9% | -0.3 |
| Oct 29, 5:30 AM | 46.2% | 48.1% | -1.9 |
| Oct 29, 5:50 AM | 48.2% | 47.6% | 0.6 |
| Oct 29, 6:00 AM | 45.9% | 47.4% | -1.5 |
| Oct 29, 6:10 AM | 47.3% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Oct 29, 6:20 AM | 51.0% | 48.0% | 3 |
| Oct 29, 6:40 AM | 52.0% | 49.8% | 2.2 |
| Oct 29, 7:10 AM | 46.5% | 47.5% | -1 |
| Oct 29, 3:25 AM | 46.5% | 49.0% | -2.5 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing toumani camara threes are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 42m ago | ||
| Courtside | 2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 1h ago | ||
|
|
3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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