Shane Baz — Pitcher Outs
Projection 18.4
How this price has moved at 17.5
Shane Baz Pitcher Outs 17.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 54.3% against 58.0% (an edge of -3.7 points) and is now 47.4% against 50.2% (-2.8 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 4:00 AM | 54.3% | 58.0% | -3.7 |
| Sep 21, 4:10 AM | 53.9% | 58.0% | -4.1 |
| Sep 21, 5:30 AM | 52.0% | 52.6% | -0.6 |
| Sep 21, 7:10 AM | 53.8% | 51.0% | 2.8 |
| Sep 21, 8:40 AM | 49.7% | 49.0% | 0.7 |
| Sep 21, 9:00 AM | 52.3% | 51.0% | 1.3 |
| Sep 21, 9:40 AM | 48.8% | 48.8% | 0 |
| Sep 21, 10:00 AM | 49.1% | 47.2% | 1.9 |
| Sep 21, 10:10 AM | 48.3% | 46.9% | 1.4 |
| Sep 21, 10:20 AM | 48.5% | 51.0% | -2.5 |
| Sep 21, 10:50 AM | 48.9% | 47.2% | 1.7 |
| Sep 21, 11:10 AM | 47.3% | 47.6% | -0.3 |
| Sep 21, 11:20 AM | 47.4% | 50.2% | -2.8 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bovada
|
17.5 | -115 53.5% | -125 55.6% | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 27m ago |
 Fanatics Sportsbook
|
17.5 | -105 51.2% | -135 57.4% | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fanatics Sportsbook last repriced this 1h ago |
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
17.5 | 46¢ +117 | 55¢ -122 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 4m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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