Projection 6.7
+2.08pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
-10451%51¢
against
Stoiximan's
-11152.6%53¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (7.5)
Teal bars cleared 7.5 — 1 of 10 (10%).
Clint Capela Rebounds 7.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 51.4% against 56.0% (an edge of -4.6 points) and is now 51.0% against 52.4% (-1.4 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 8:40 AM | 51.4% | 56.0% | -4.6 |
| Oct 28, 10:20 AM | 47.6% | 54.5% | -6.9 |
| Oct 28, 11:00 AM | 51.2% | 55.1% | -3.9 |
| Oct 28, 11:10 AM | 50.7% | 54.5% | -3.8 |
| Oct 28, 11:20 AM | 51.8% | 55.0% | -3.2 |
| Oct 28, 11:50 AM | 50.0% | 54.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 28, 12:10 PM | 51.4% | 53.4% | -2 |
| Oct 28, 12:20 PM | 48.4% | 51.0% | -2.6 |
| Oct 28, 12:40 PM | 52.9% | 54.5% | -1.6 |
| Oct 28, 12:50 PM | 53.1% | 54.3% | -1.2 |
| Oct 28, 1:00 PM | 51.7% | 52.5% | -0.8 |
| Oct 28, 1:10 PM | 50.0% | 53.7% | -3.7 |
| Oct 28, 9:28 AM | 51.0% | 52.4% | -1.4 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
7.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 1h ago | ||
|
|
7.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 30m ago | ||
| Courtside | 7.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 4m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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