Projection 7.8
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (6.5)
Teal bars cleared 6.5 — 2 of 10 (20%).
Keon Ellis Points 6.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 53.4% against 57.1% (an edge of -3.7 points) and is now 53.4% against 57.1% (-3.7 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 4:40 AM | 53.4% | 57.1% | -3.7 |
| Oct 27, 4:50 AM | 53.2% | 57.4% | -4.2 |
| Oct 27, 5:00 AM | 52.0% | 56.6% | -4.6 |
| Oct 27, 5:10 AM | 52.0% | 56.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 27, 5:20 AM | 52.9% | 56.7% | -3.8 |
| Oct 27, 5:30 AM | 53.4% | 58.0% | -4.6 |
| Oct 27, 5:40 AM | 54.7% | 57.1% | -2.4 |
| Oct 27, 6:10 AM | 52.0% | 56.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 27, 6:20 AM | 52.8% | 56.5% | -3.7 |
| Oct 27, 6:40 AM | 53.1% | 56.5% | -3.4 |
| Oct 27, 7:00 AM | 53.1% | 57.1% | -4 |
| Oct 27, 7:10 AM | 53.6% | 57.1% | -3.5 |
| Oct 27, 7:20 AM | 52.0% | 57.6% | -5.6 |
| Oct 27, 7:30 AM | 53.1% | 55.6% | -2.5 |
| Oct 27, 8:00 AM | 53.8% | 58.0% | -4.2 |
| Oct 27, 10:50 AM | 53.1% | 57.1% | -4 |
| Oct 27, 11:00 AM | 52.0% | 57.1% | -5.1 |
| Oct 27, 11:30 AM | 53.8% | 57.2% | -3.4 |
| Oct 27, 11:50 AM | 54.3% | 57.3% | -3 |
| Oct 27, 12:00 PM | 53.4% | 56.1% | -2.7 |
| Oct 27, 12:20 PM | 52.4% | 55.3% | -2.9 |
| Oct 27, 12:40 PM | 52.6% | 55.9% | -3.3 |
| Oct 27, 1:10 PM | 51.9% | 53.9% | -2 |
| Oct 27, 1:20 PM | 52.0% | 55.4% | -3.4 |
| Oct 27, 1:40 PM | 52.2% | 53.9% | -1.7 |
| Oct 27, 1:50 PM | 52.4% | 53.5% | -1.1 |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM | 52.0% | 53.5% | -1.5 |
| Oct 27, 2:30 PM | 52.3% | 53.5% | -1.2 |
| Oct 27, 2:40 PM | 52.9% | 58.0% | -5.1 |
| Oct 27, 2:50 PM | 52.0% | 57.6% | -5.6 |
| Oct 27, 3:00 PM | 53.5% | 56.5% | -3 |
| Oct 27, 3:10 PM | 53.1% | 54.7% | -1.6 |
| Oct 27, 3:40 PM | 53.1% | 53.1% | 0 |
| Oct 27, 3:50 PM | 52.4% | 53.1% | -0.7 |
| Oct 27, 4:10 PM | 51.9% | 54.1% | -2.2 |
| Oct 27, 4:20 PM | 53.5% | 55.0% | -1.5 |
| Oct 27, 4:30 PM | 52.0% | 54.3% | -2.3 |
| Oct 27, 4:40 PM | 51.0% | 56.3% | -5.3 |
| Oct 27, 5:00 PM | 51.0% | 55.4% | -4.4 |
| Oct 27, 5:20 PM | 52.8% | 54.8% | -2 |
| Oct 27, 5:40 PM | 51.6% | 54.8% | -3.2 |
| Oct 27, 6:10 PM | 53.4% | 53.1% | 0.3 |
| Oct 27, 6:20 PM | 51.2% | 54.1% | -2.9 |
| Oct 27, 6:30 PM | 53.1% | 55.0% | -1.9 |
| Oct 27, 6:40 PM | 53.2% | 53.9% | -0.7 |
| Oct 27, 6:50 PM | 51.8% | 56.1% | -4.3 |
| Oct 27, 7:00 PM | 53.5% | 57.1% | -3.6 |
| Oct 27, 7:10 PM | 52.8% | 56.9% | -4.1 |
| Oct 27, 7:20 PM | 52.2% | 56.5% | -4.3 |
| Oct 27, 7:30 PM | 52.8% | 56.7% | -3.9 |
| Oct 27, 7:40 PM | 52.4% | 56.5% | -4.1 |
| Oct 27, 7:50 PM | 53.1% | 57.2% | -4.1 |
| Oct 27, 8:00 PM | 52.7% | 57.4% | -4.7 |
| Oct 27, 8:10 PM | 47.9% | 55.8% | -7.9 |
| Oct 27, 8:20 PM | 53.5% | 56.4% | -2.9 |
| Oct 27, 8:30 PM | 53.5% | 56.8% | -3.3 |
| Oct 27, 4:46 PM | 53.4% | 57.1% | -3.7 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 4h ago | ||
|
|
6.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 1h ago | ||
| Stoiximan | 6.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Stoiximan last repriced this 33m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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