Projection 17.4
+2.16pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
-10851.9%52¢
against
Stoiximan's
-11152.6%53¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (16.5)
Teal bars cleared 16.5 — 4 of 10 (40%).
Egor Demin Points Rebounds Assists 16.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 52.4% against 55.9% (an edge of -3.5 points) and is now 51.0% against 53.4% (-2.4 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 4:30 AM | 52.4% | 55.9% | -3.5 |
| Oct 27, 4:50 AM | 52.8% | 57.1% | -4.3 |
| Oct 27, 5:00 AM | 52.8% | 56.5% | -3.7 |
| Oct 27, 5:10 AM | 53.2% | 58.1% | -4.9 |
| Oct 27, 5:20 AM | 52.3% | 59.0% | -6.7 |
| Oct 27, 5:30 AM | 51.9% | 56.8% | -4.9 |
| Oct 27, 5:40 AM | 50.6% | 54.9% | -4.3 |
| Oct 27, 6:20 AM | 51.0% | 54.9% | -3.9 |
| Oct 27, 6:40 AM | 53.1% | 55.8% | -2.7 |
| Oct 27, 7:00 AM | 52.4% | 58.0% | -5.6 |
| Oct 27, 7:10 AM | 52.0% | 55.7% | -3.7 |
| Oct 27, 7:20 AM | 51.9% | 56.0% | -4.1 |
| Oct 27, 7:50 AM | 51.4% | 54.8% | -3.4 |
| Oct 27, 8:00 AM | 51.9% | 56.3% | -4.4 |
| Oct 27, 9:40 AM | 52.0% | 56.2% | -4.2 |
| Oct 27, 10:00 AM | 54.1% | 57.6% | -3.5 |
| Oct 27, 11:20 AM | 51.4% | 55.0% | -3.6 |
| Oct 27, 11:30 AM | 51.0% | 56.0% | -5 |
| Oct 27, 11:50 AM | 50.8% | 54.9% | -4.1 |
| Oct 27, 12:00 PM | 50.0% | 53.3% | -3.3 |
| Oct 27, 12:20 PM | 50.8% | 54.6% | -3.8 |
| Oct 27, 12:40 PM | 50.2% | 54.8% | -4.6 |
| Oct 27, 1:10 PM | 51.0% | 54.9% | -3.9 |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM | 51.4% | 54.2% | -2.8 |
| Oct 27, 2:20 PM | 50.6% | 53.7% | -3.1 |
| Oct 27, 3:10 PM | 50.0% | 53.7% | -3.7 |
| Oct 27, 3:40 PM | 51.7% | 54.9% | -3.2 |
| Oct 27, 4:10 PM | 51.0% | 55.2% | -4.2 |
| Oct 27, 4:30 PM | 50.6% | 53.7% | -3.1 |
| Oct 27, 4:50 PM | 50.0% | 53.7% | -3.7 |
| Oct 27, 5:00 PM | 51.0% | 54.3% | -3.3 |
| Oct 27, 5:10 PM | 52.7% | 54.3% | -1.6 |
| Oct 27, 5:20 PM | 51.5% | 52.0% | -0.5 |
| Oct 27, 5:30 PM | 53.1% | 54.5% | -1.4 |
| Oct 27, 5:40 PM | 48.3% | 55.4% | -7.1 |
| Oct 27, 6:00 PM | 49.1% | 54.0% | -4.9 |
| Oct 27, 6:10 PM | 47.9% | 53.9% | -6 |
| Oct 27, 6:20 PM | 51.0% | 53.7% | -2.7 |
| Oct 27, 6:30 PM | 50.6% | 53.9% | -3.3 |
| Oct 27, 6:40 PM | 52.0% | 53.7% | -1.7 |
| Oct 27, 6:50 PM | 50.0% | 53.9% | -3.9 |
| Oct 27, 7:00 PM | 50.8% | 53.9% | -3.1 |
| Oct 27, 7:10 PM | 50.5% | 53.7% | -3.2 |
| Oct 27, 7:30 PM | 52.3% | 53.1% | -0.8 |
| Oct 27, 7:40 PM | 50.0% | 52.8% | -2.8 |
| Oct 27, 7:50 PM | 50.0% | 52.2% | -2.2 |
| Oct 27, 8:00 PM | 51.0% | 53.3% | -2.3 |
| Oct 27, 8:10 PM | 50.0% | 54.3% | -4.3 |
| Oct 27, 8:30 PM | 50.5% | 53.4% | -2.9 |
| Oct 27, 8:40 PM | 50.7% | 51.9% | -1.2 |
| Oct 27, 4:47 PM | 51.0% | 53.4% | -2.4 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 2h ago | ||
| Courtside | 16.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 1h ago | ||
| Stoiximan | 16.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Stoiximan last repriced this 34m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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