Sandro Mamukelashvili — Threes
Projection 1.2
+2.87pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
+30025%25¢
against
Hard Rock Bet's
+19034.5%34¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)
Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Sandro Mamukelashvili Threes 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 64.9% against 70.0% (an edge of -5.1 points) and is now 63.0% against 65.0% (-2 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 4:20 AM | 64.9% | 70.0% | -5.1 |
| Oct 27, 4:30 AM | 64.9% | 69.5% | -4.6 |
| Oct 27, 4:40 AM | 64.0% | 81.0% | -17 |
| Oct 27, 4:50 AM | 64.1% | 69.5% | -5.4 |
| Oct 27, 5:00 AM | 60.4% | 68.6% | -8.2 |
| Oct 27, 5:10 AM | 63.8% | 68.5% | -4.7 |
| Oct 27, 5:20 AM | 63.5% | 68.1% | -4.6 |
| Oct 27, 5:30 AM | 63.7% | 69.7% | -6 |
| Oct 27, 5:40 AM | 61.4% | 69.2% | -7.8 |
| Oct 27, 5:50 AM | 63.2% | 67.7% | -4.5 |
| Oct 27, 6:00 AM | 62.4% | 68.3% | -5.9 |
| Oct 27, 6:20 AM | 62.6% | 67.0% | -4.4 |
| Oct 27, 6:50 AM | 57.2% | 66.3% | -9.1 |
| Oct 27, 10:10 AM | 62.8% | 67.7% | -4.9 |
| Oct 27, 10:20 AM | 63.1% | 66.1% | -3 |
| Oct 27, 10:40 AM | 62.3% | 68.3% | -6 |
| Oct 27, 10:50 AM | 63.0% | 67.2% | -4.2 |
| Oct 27, 11:00 AM | 62.6% | 65.5% | -2.9 |
| Oct 27, 11:10 AM | 62.4% | 66.6% | -4.2 |
| Oct 27, 11:20 AM | 62.3% | 67.6% | -5.3 |
| Oct 27, 11:40 AM | 62.4% | 66.1% | -3.7 |
| Oct 27, 12:40 PM | 63.0% | 65.9% | -2.9 |
| Oct 27, 12:50 PM | 62.4% | 66.1% | -3.7 |
| Oct 27, 1:00 PM | 63.1% | 67.2% | -4.1 |
| Oct 27, 1:10 PM | 63.3% | 65.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 27, 1:20 PM | 63.2% | 64.9% | -1.7 |
| Oct 27, 1:30 PM | 63.5% | 63.2% | 0.3 |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM | 59.0% | 62.7% | -3.7 |
| Oct 27, 3:20 PM | 56.4% | 64.0% | -7.6 |
| Oct 27, 3:30 PM | 55.5% | 63.9% | -8.4 |
| Oct 27, 3:40 PM | 63.2% | 63.9% | -0.7 |
| Oct 27, 4:40 PM | 62.8% | 63.8% | -1 |
| Oct 27, 4:50 PM | 62.8% | 63.8% | -1 |
| Oct 27, 5:30 PM | 62.6% | 64.0% | -1.4 |
| Oct 27, 5:40 PM | 63.2% | 64.5% | -1.3 |
| Oct 27, 5:50 PM | 58.4% | 66.4% | -8 |
| Oct 27, 6:10 PM | 61.7% | 66.4% | -4.7 |
| Oct 27, 6:30 PM | 59.5% | 64.0% | -4.5 |
| Oct 27, 6:50 PM | 63.0% | 65.2% | -2.2 |
| Oct 27, 7:00 PM | 62.9% | 65.2% | -2.3 |
| Oct 27, 7:20 PM | 63.3% | 67.7% | -4.4 |
| Oct 27, 7:30 PM | 63.8% | 65.4% | -1.6 |
| Oct 27, 7:40 PM | 60.1% | 65.7% | -5.6 |
| Oct 27, 7:50 PM | 63.2% | 64.8% | -1.6 |
| Oct 27, 8:20 PM | 59.4% | 64.0% | -4.6 |
| Oct 27, 8:30 PM | 62.6% | 64.0% | -1.4 |
| Oct 27, 8:40 PM | 61.2% | 64.5% | -3.3 |
| Oct 27, 4:47 PM | 63.0% | 65.0% | -2 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bovada
|
0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 33m ago | ||
| Courtside | 0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 44m ago | ||
| Stoiximan | 0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Stoiximan last repriced this 5m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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