Paul George — Points
Projection 16.1
+0.2pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
+16038.5%38¢
against
Bovada's
+12045.5%45¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (18.5)
Teal bars cleared 18.5 — 3 of 10 (30%).
Paul George Points 18.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 53.1% against 55.4% (an edge of -2.3 points) and is now 49.2% against 48.9% (0.3 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 10:00 AM | 53.1% | 55.4% | -2.3 |
| Oct 27, 11:40 AM | 52.0% | 55.4% | -3.4 |
| Oct 27, 1:00 PM | 50.1% | 57.6% | -7.5 |
| Oct 27, 1:10 PM | 52.9% | 55.8% | -2.9 |
| Oct 27, 1:40 PM | 52.1% | 54.5% | -2.4 |
| Oct 27, 1:50 PM | 51.0% | 55.3% | -4.3 |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM | 50.0% | 55.0% | -5 |
| Oct 27, 2:20 PM | 50.6% | 54.5% | -3.9 |
| Oct 27, 2:30 PM | 52.0% | 57.0% | -5 |
| Oct 27, 2:40 PM | 51.3% | 53.7% | -2.4 |
| Oct 27, 2:50 PM | 51.2% | 54.5% | -3.3 |
| Oct 27, 3:00 PM | 50.0% | 54.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 27, 3:10 PM | 51.0% | 54.5% | -3.5 |
| Oct 27, 3:40 PM | 50.0% | 55.4% | -5.4 |
| Oct 27, 3:50 PM | 51.0% | 53.9% | -2.9 |
| Oct 27, 4:00 PM | 50.9% | 53.9% | -3 |
| Oct 27, 4:10 PM | 52.2% | 53.8% | -1.6 |
| Oct 27, 4:20 PM | 48.0% | 50.5% | -2.5 |
| Oct 27, 4:30 PM | 49.5% | 49.5% | 0 |
| Oct 27, 4:40 PM | 52.0% | 50.7% | 1.3 |
| Oct 27, 4:50 PM | 50.0% | 49.3% | 0.7 |
| Oct 27, 5:00 PM | 50.9% | 49.5% | 1.4 |
| Oct 27, 5:10 PM | 48.8% | 48.8% | 0 |
| Oct 27, 5:20 PM | 47.9% | 48.9% | -1 |
| Oct 27, 6:20 PM | 48.0% | 49.0% | -1 |
| Oct 27, 6:30 PM | 49.0% | 49.0% | 0 |
| Oct 27, 6:40 PM | 50.0% | 49.0% | 1 |
| Oct 27, 6:50 PM | 49.0% | 49.0% | 0 |
| Oct 27, 7:00 PM | 49.0% | 49.0% | 0 |
| Oct 27, 7:10 PM | 50.0% | 49.3% | 0.7 |
| Oct 27, 7:20 PM | 47.2% | 49.0% | -1.8 |
| Oct 27, 7:50 PM | 49.0% | 48.5% | 0.5 |
| Oct 27, 8:00 PM | 48.0% | 48.5% | -0.5 |
| Oct 27, 8:30 PM | 50.0% | 48.3% | 1.7 |
| Oct 27, 4:47 PM | 49.2% | 48.9% | 0.3 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BetMGM
|
18.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 9m ago | ||
 BetRivers
|
18.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 12m ago | ||
 Hard Rock Bet
|
17.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 1h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
Unlock fair value and every gap with Premium54 more books behind Premium
Free accounts see 3 books on a prop. Premium shows every book and exchange we price, so you can take the best number.
Go PremiumUpdated 9 minutes ago.