Polymarket
There is one honest answer and it is not a system: you come out ahead by taking prices better than the outcome is worth. Here is how Polymarket makes that possible — and where those prices are right now.
Every price is a probability in disguise. A -110 price says the outcome happens 52.38% of the time; a 42¢ contract says 42%. You have an edge when the price you can take implies a lower probability than the outcome actually has — that gap, repeated across many bets, is the only thing that makes a bettor profitable. Nothing else does, and no amount of confidence in a pick substitutes for it.
The practical version is simpler. When two venues price the same outcome and one is cheaper, the cheaper price is the better bet, whatever you think of the outcome. That is the entire idea behind this site, and it is the only claim on this page.
Polymarket is an order-book market: the price is whatever two traders agree on, and a share that settles at $1 quotes as a probability directly.
Polymarket's taker fee is a fraction of a percent, which makes its headline quote very close to the all-in cost and often the cheapest of the exchanges in the middle of the price range.
Polymarket runs deep liquidity on headline games and much thinner books on the rest of the slate, and its player-prop coverage is still filling in — check the size behind a quote, not just the quote.
Polymarket's edges tend to be largest on games the order book is actively trading and unreliable on markets where almost nobody is quoting.
A live one, from the board below. Sam Darnold passing yards over 324.5 is +10768.5%9¢ at Polymarket and +89610%10¢ at Rebet. Converted to probability, those two prices are 1.54 points apart on the same outcome — you are paying about 1.54 cents less per dollar of exposure at Polymarket for a bet you were going to make anyway. The +4.12% on the row is a different measurement: how far the Polymarket price sits below the de-vigged fair price for this outcome, which is what the board ranks on.
A gap that size does not make a bet a winner. It makes it a cheaper bet, and cheaper bets are what compound. Results over any short run are dominated by variance, and a run of losses tells you nothing about whether you were getting the better price.
BeatVig is showing 109 props where Polymarket beats the best sportsbook price right now, across NFL, NBA and MLB.
Polymarket
+10768.5%9¢
vs
Rebet
+89610%10¢
· +1.54pp vs Rebet
fair 12.6% · edge +3.73pp (worst case +0.61pp) — this edge is 3.73 percentage points under the de-vigging method BeatVig publishes and as little as 0.61 under the least flattering of the 4 methods that fit Kalshi's own two-sided prices
Polymarket
-10050%50¢
vs
Stoiximan
-11052.4%52¢
· +2.38pp vs Stoiximan
fair 53.4% · Pinnacle, multiplicative devig
Polymarket
-10451%51¢
vs
FanDuel
-11453.3%53¢
· +2.29pp vs FanDuel
fair 54.1% · Pinnacle, multiplicative devig
Free accounts see a 3-edge sample from below the top of the board. Premium unlocks every Polymarket edge, every sport, every market.
Go PremiumSome people do and most people do not, and no page can tell you which you will be. What is measurable is the price you pay: taking the cheaper of two prices on the same outcome improves your expected result, and paying the more expensive one worsens it.
Compare the Polymarket quote to what every sportsbook is charging for the identical outcome, converted to implied probability so the two are the same unit. BeatVig does that conversion continuously and lists the props where Polymarket is currently the cheaper side.
On many props it is, because a sportsbook builds its margin into the line while Polymarket charges separately from the price. It is not cheaper on everything, and the only reliable way to know is to check the specific prop you want.
Polymarket's taker fee is a fraction of a percent, which makes its headline quote very close to the all-in cost and often the cheapest of the exchanges in the middle of the price range.
No. A better price improves the long-run expectation of a bet and changes nothing about whether that individual bet wins. Short-run results are dominated by variance, and bets can and do lose at any price.
BeatVig compares prices. It is not a sportsbook or an exchange, accepts no wagers and sells no picks. Bet only what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, or read our responsible gambling page.
