How to win on Novig

Every price is a probability in disguise. A -110 price says the outcome happens 52.38% of the time; a 42¢ contract says 42%. You have an edge when the price you can take implies a lower probability than the outcome actually has — that gap, repeated across many bets, is the only thing that makes a bettor profitable. Nothing else does, and no amount of confidence in a pick substitutes for it.

The practical version is simpler. When two venues price the same outcome and one is cheaper, the cheaper price is the better bet, whatever you think of the outcome. That is the entire idea behind this site, and it is the only claim on this page.

Novig is a peer-to-peer exchange wearing a sportsbook interface: your price comes from another user rather than from a trading desk that sets a margin.

Novig takes a small per-contract fee from the taker and pays makers a rebate rather than baking vig into the line. It is low-fee rather than fee-free, and when Novig steps in as counterparty in a thin market a spread comes back into the price.

Novig covers the mainstream major-league slate with real depth and thins out quickly past it.

Novig's posted numbers are routinely better than a sportsbook on the same outcome, so the edge is usually a straight price improvement rather than a disagreement.

A live one, from the board below. Jared Simpson strikeouts over 1.5 is -104 at Novig and -122 at DraftKings. Converted to probability, that is a 3.98% gap on the same outcome — you are paying 3.98 cents less per dollar of exposure for a bet you were going to make anyway.

A gap that size does not make a bet a winner. It makes it a cheaper bet, and cheaper bets are what compound. Results over any short run are dominated by variance, and a run of losses tells you nothing about whether you were getting the better price.